Matchday 3 · Euro 2020 · June 20, 2021
Italy 1–0 Wales: who deserved to win?
Italy beat Wales 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Italy win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Italy made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.2.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Italy about even · −14 Wales
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Italy win 8, 2 end level, Wales win 0.
- 1 ITA 1 WAL 0
- 2 ITA 1 WAL 0
- 3 ITA 1 WAL 0
- 4 ITA 2 WAL 0
- 5 ITA 2 WAL 0
- 6 ITA 3 WAL 0
- 7 ITA 3 WAL 0
- 8 ITA 4 WAL 0
- 9 ITA 0 WAL 0
- 10 ITA 0 WAL 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Italy win 77%, 19% end level, Wales win 4%. The line is what actually happened: Italy by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Italy by 3+ | 25.1% |
| Italy by 2 | 24.3% |
| Italy by 1 | 27.2% |
| Draw | 19.1% |
| Wales by 1 | 3.9% |
| Wales by 2 | 0.4% |
| Wales by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Italy | 23 | 1 | 1.67 | −0.67 |
 Wales | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | −0.24 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Andrea Belotti didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 38' | Matteo Pessina scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Italy’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Andrea Belotti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +9% WAL |
| 2 | 16' | Rafael Tolói didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chanceMatteo Pessina didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% WAL |
| 3 | 23' | Andrea Belotti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% WAL |
| 4 | 26' | Chris Gunter didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ITA |
| 5 | 28' | Federico Chiesa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% WAL |
| 6 | 38' | Matteo Pessina scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +25% ITA |
| 7 | 41' | Matteo Pessina didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +3% WAL |
| 8 | 74' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +7% ITA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Italy 76% · draw 20% · Wales 4%
- Final margin
- Italy by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Wales
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Italy by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Italy 77% · draw 19% · Wales 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Italy win 86% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2020
- Switzerland 3–1 Turkey Jun 20, 2021 · replay 83% for Switzerland
- Russia 1–4 Denmark Jun 21, 2021 · replay 86% for Denmark
- North Macedonia 0–3 Netherlands Jun 21, 2021 · replay 96% for Netherlands
- Finland 0–2 Belgium Jun 21, 2021 · replay 78% for Belgium
- Ukraine 0–1 Austria Jun 21, 2021 · replay 82% for Austria
- Croatia 3–1 Scotland Jun 22, 2021 · replay 48% for Croatia
- Czech Republic 0–1 England Jun 22, 2021 · replay 62% for England
- Portugal 2–2 France Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Germany 2–2 Hungary Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Slovakia 0–5 Spain Jun 23, 2021 · replay 98% for Spain
- Sweden 3–2 Poland Jun 23, 2021 · replay 44% for Sweden