Matchday 3 · Euro 2020 · June 23, 2021
Portugal 2–2 France: who deserved to win?
Portugal and France drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Portugal win 5 of 10, France 3, and 2 end level. Portugal made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 1.5.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −11 Portugal about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Portugal win 5, 2 end level, France win 3.
- 1 POR 1 FRA 0
- 2 POR 4 FRA 3
- 3 POR 3 FRA 1
- 4 POR 2 FRA 0
- 5 POR 3 FRA 0
- 6 POR 2 FRA 2
- 7 POR 1 FRA 1
- 8 POR 2 FRA 4
- 9 POR 1 FRA 2
- 10 POR 2 FRA 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Portugal win 50%, 23% end level, France win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Portugal by 3+ | 13.3% |
| Portugal by 2 | 15.0% |
| Portugal by 1 | 21.4% |
| Draw | 22.9% |
| France by 1 | 14.6% |
| France by 2 | 8.3% |
| France by 3+ | 4.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Portugal | 10 (2 pen) | 2 | 2.04 | −0.04 |
 France | 11 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.51 | +0.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 30' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 46' | Karim Benzema scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 46' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 59' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Portugal’s chance of winning
As low as 15% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% POR |
| 2 | 26' | Danilo Luís Hélio Pereira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% FRA |
| 3 | 30' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% POR |
| 4 | 46' | Karim Benzema scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% FRA |
| 5 | 46' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +21% FRA |
| 6 | 59' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +8% POR |
| 7 | 67' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% POR |
| 8 | 85' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% POR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Portugal 51% · draw 29% · France 20%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for France
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Portugal by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Portugal 50% · draw 23% · France 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 3, 2020
- Switzerland 3–1 Turkey Jun 20, 2021 · replay 83% for Switzerland
- Italy 1–0 Wales Jun 20, 2021 · replay 86% for Italy
- Russia 1–4 Denmark Jun 21, 2021 · replay 86% for Denmark
- North Macedonia 0–3 Netherlands Jun 21, 2021 · replay 96% for Netherlands
- Finland 0–2 Belgium Jun 21, 2021 · replay 78% for Belgium
- Ukraine 0–1 Austria Jun 21, 2021 · replay 82% for Austria
- Croatia 3–1 Scotland Jun 22, 2021 · replay 48% for Croatia
- Czech Republic 0–1 England Jun 22, 2021 · replay 62% for England
- Germany 2–2 Hungary Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Slovakia 0–5 Spain Jun 23, 2021 · replay 98% for Spain
- Sweden 3–2 Poland Jun 23, 2021 · replay 44% for Sweden