Matchday 3 · Euro 2020 · June 21, 2021
Finland 0–2 Belgium: who deserved to win?
Belgium beat Finland 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Belgium win 6 of 10, 3 end level. Belgium made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.2. An own goal helped Belgium.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Belgium about even · −22 Finland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Finland win 1, 3 end level, Belgium win 6.
- 1 FIN 1 BEL 0
- 2 FIN 0 BEL 0
- 3 FIN 0 BEL 0
- 4 FIN 0 BEL 0
- 5 FIN 0 BEL 3
- 6 FIN 0 BEL 2
- 7 FIN 0 BEL 2
- 8 FIN 0 BEL 1
- 9 FIN 0 BEL 1
- 10 FIN 0 BEL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Finland win 7%, 30% end level, Belgium win 62%. The line is what actually happened: Belgium by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Finland by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Finland by 2 | 0.8% |
| Finland by 1 | 6.5% |
| Draw | 30.2% |
| Belgium by 1 | 32.5% |
| Belgium by 2 | 19.1% |
| Belgium by 3+ | 10.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Finland | 7 | 0 | 0.24 | −0.24 |
 Belgium | 17 | 1 | 1.14 | −0.14 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 80' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Finland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% FIN |
| 2 | 38' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% FIN |
| 3 | 57' | Eden Hazard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% FIN |
| 4 | 61' | Glen Kamara didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% BEL |
| 5 | 62' | Eden Hazard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% FIN |
| 6 | 73' | Thomas Vermaelen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +6% FIN |
| 7 | 73' | Own goal by nan, for BelgiumOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +39% BEL |
| 8 | 80' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% BEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Finland 9% · draw 31% · Belgium 60%
- Final margin
- Belgium by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Belgium
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Belgium by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Finland 7% · draw 30% · Belgium 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Belgium win 78% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2020
- Switzerland 3–1 Turkey Jun 20, 2021 · replay 83% for Switzerland
- Italy 1–0 Wales Jun 20, 2021 · replay 86% for Italy
- Russia 1–4 Denmark Jun 21, 2021 · replay 86% for Denmark
- North Macedonia 0–3 Netherlands Jun 21, 2021 · replay 96% for Netherlands
- Ukraine 0–1 Austria Jun 21, 2021 · replay 82% for Austria
- Croatia 3–1 Scotland Jun 22, 2021 · replay 48% for Croatia
- Czech Republic 0–1 England Jun 22, 2021 · replay 62% for England
- Portugal 2–2 France Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Germany 2–2 Hungary Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Slovakia 0–5 Spain Jun 23, 2021 · replay 98% for Spain
- Sweden 3–2 Poland Jun 23, 2021 · replay 44% for Sweden