Matchday 3 · Euro 2020 · June 22, 2021
Czech Republic 0–1 England: who deserved to win?
England beat Czech Republic 1–0, and the replays lean England’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for Czech Republic, 4 end level. England made the better chances: 0.6 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Czech Republic | 0 | 0.39 |
 England | 1 | 0.64 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 England lucky · −38 Czech Republic
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Czech Republic win 2, 4 end level, England win 4.
- 1 CZE 1 ENG 0
- 2 CZE 1 ENG 0
- 3 CZE 0 ENG 0
- 4 CZE 0 ENG 0
- 5 CZE 0 ENG 0
- 6 CZE 2 ENG 2
- 7 CZE 0 ENG 2
- 8 CZE 0 ENG 1
- 9 CZE 1 ENG 2
- 10 CZE 0 ENG 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Czech Republic win 16%, 43% end level, England win 41%. The line is what actually happened: England by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Czech Republic by 3+ | 0.2% |
| Czech Republic by 2 | 2.5% |
| Czech Republic by 1 | 13.8% |
| Draw | 42.8% |
| England by 1 | 28.0% |
| England by 2 | 9.9% |
| England by 3+ | 2.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Czech Republic | 7 | 0 | 0.39 | −0.39 |
 England | 6 | 1 | 0.64 | +0.36 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Czech Republic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% CZE |
| 2 | 11' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +17% ENG |
| 3 | 25' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +2% CZE |
| 4 | 27' | Tomáš Kalas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% ENG |
| 5 | 28' | Tomáš Souček didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ENG |
| 6 | 34' | Tomáš Souček didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% ENG |
| 7 | 82' | Tomáš Pekhart didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% ENG |
| 8 | 91' | Alex Král didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% ENG |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Czech Republic 20% · draw 41% · England 39%
- Final margin
- England by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for England
- Luck-adjusted margin
- England by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Czech Republic 16% · draw 43% · England 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). England win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2020
- Switzerland 3–1 Turkey Jun 20, 2021 · replay 83% for Switzerland
- Italy 1–0 Wales Jun 20, 2021 · replay 86% for Italy
- Russia 1–4 Denmark Jun 21, 2021 · replay 86% for Denmark
- North Macedonia 0–3 Netherlands Jun 21, 2021 · replay 96% for Netherlands
- Finland 0–2 Belgium Jun 21, 2021 · replay 78% for Belgium
- Ukraine 0–1 Austria Jun 21, 2021 · replay 82% for Austria
- Croatia 3–1 Scotland Jun 22, 2021 · replay 48% for Croatia
- Portugal 2–2 France Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Germany 2–2 Hungary Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Slovakia 0–5 Spain Jun 23, 2021 · replay 98% for Spain
- Sweden 3–2 Poland Jun 23, 2021 · replay 44% for Sweden