Matchday 3 · Euro 2020 · June 23, 2021
Germany 2–2 Hungary: who deserved to win?
Germany and Hungary drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Germany win 6 of 10, Hungary 2, and 2 end level. Germany made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.7.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −21 Germany about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Germany win 6, 2 end level, Hungary win 2.
- 1 GER 1 HUN 0
- 2 GER 1 HUN 0
- 3 GER 2 HUN 1
- 4 GER 3 HUN 1
- 5 GER 4 HUN 1
- 6 GER 5 HUN 1
- 7 GER 2 HUN 2
- 8 GER 2 HUN 2
- 9 GER 0 HUN 2
- 10 GER 1 HUN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Germany win 60%, 23% end level, Hungary win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Germany by 3+ | 14.9% |
| Germany by 2 | 18.1% |
| Germany by 1 | 26.5% |
| Draw | 23.2% |
| Hungary by 1 | 12.4% |
| Hungary by 2 | 3.8% |
| Hungary by 3+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Germany | 18 | 2 | 2.10 | −0.10 |
 Hungary | 9 | 2 | 0.74 | +1.26 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Ádám Szalai scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 65' | Kai Havertz scored from a shot | 0.88 |
| 67' | András Schäfer scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 83' | Leon Goretzka scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Germany’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Ádám Szalai scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +17% HUN |
| 2 | 20' | Mats Hummels didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% HUN |
| 3 | 20' | Matthias Ginter didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +7% HUN |
| 4 | 65' | Kai Havertz scored from a shotFinishing · 88% chance | +4% GER |
| 5 | 67' | András Schäfer scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +31% HUN |
| 6 | 79' | Thomas Müller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% HUN |
| 7 | 83' | Timo Werner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% HUN |
| 8 | 83' | Leon Goretzka scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +42% GER |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Germany 76% · draw 17% · Hungary 7%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Hungary
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Germany by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Germany 60% · draw 23% · Hungary 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 3, 2020
- Switzerland 3–1 Turkey Jun 20, 2021 · replay 83% for Switzerland
- Italy 1–0 Wales Jun 20, 2021 · replay 86% for Italy
- Russia 1–4 Denmark Jun 21, 2021 · replay 86% for Denmark
- North Macedonia 0–3 Netherlands Jun 21, 2021 · replay 96% for Netherlands
- Finland 0–2 Belgium Jun 21, 2021 · replay 78% for Belgium
- Ukraine 0–1 Austria Jun 21, 2021 · replay 82% for Austria
- Croatia 3–1 Scotland Jun 22, 2021 · replay 48% for Croatia
- Czech Republic 0–1 England Jun 22, 2021 · replay 62% for England
- Portugal 2–2 France Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Slovakia 0–5 Spain Jun 23, 2021 · replay 98% for Spain
- Sweden 3–2 Poland Jun 23, 2021 · replay 44% for Sweden