Matchday 3 · Euro 2020 · June 21, 2021
North Macedonia 0–3 Netherlands: who deserved to win?
Netherlands beat North Macedonia 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Netherlands win 10 of 10. Netherlands made the better chances: 3.2 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 North Macedonia | 0 | 0.74 |
 Netherlands | 3 | 3.22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Netherlands about even · −4 North Macedonia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. North Macedonia win 0, 0 end level, Netherlands win 10.
- 1 MKD 0 NED 8
- 2 MKD 0 NED 6
- 3 MKD 1 NED 6
- 4 MKD 1 NED 5
- 5 MKD 0 NED 4
- 6 MKD 1 NED 4
- 7 MKD 1 NED 4
- 8 MKD 0 NED 2
- 9 MKD 0 NED 2
- 10 MKD 1 NED 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
North Macedonia win 2%, 4% end level, Netherlands win 94%. The line is what actually happened: Netherlands by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| North Macedonia by 3+ | 0.1% |
| North Macedonia by 2 | 0.3% |
| North Macedonia by 1 | 1.7% |
| Draw | 4.4% |
| Netherlands by 1 | 9.9% |
| Netherlands by 2 | 15.0% |
| Netherlands by 3+ | 68.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 North Macedonia | 13 | 0 | 0.74 | −0.74 |
 Netherlands | 17 | 3 | 3.22 | −0.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 23' | Memphis Depay scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 28' | Denzel Dumfries didn’t score from a shot | 0.56 |
| 50' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shot | 0.67 |
| 57' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 57' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shot | 0.53 |
When it happened
North Macedonia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Denzel Dumfries didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% MKD |
| 2 | 21' | Aleksandar Trajkovski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% NED |
| 3 | 23' | Memphis Depay scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +22% NED |
| 4 | 28' | Denzel Dumfries didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +9% MKD |
| 5 | 40' | Visar Musliu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% NED |
| 6 | 49' | Matthijs de Ligt didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% MKD |
| 7 | 50' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shotFinishing · 67% chance | +4% NED |
| 8 | 57' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +1% NED |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
North Macedonia 1% · draw 3% · Netherlands 97%
- Final margin
- Netherlands by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Netherlands
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Netherlands by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- North Macedonia 2% · draw 4% · Netherlands 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Netherlands win 96% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 3 matches, 2020 · North Macedonia · Netherlands
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