Matchday 3 · Euro 2020 · June 23, 2021
Slovakia 0–5 Spain: who deserved to win?
Spain beat Slovakia 5–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Spain win 10 of 10. Spain made the better chances: 3.2 expected goals to 0.1. An own goal helped Spain.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Spain about even · −2 Slovakia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Slovakia win 0, 0 end level, Spain win 10.
- 1 SVK 0 ESP 7
- 2 SVK 0 ESP 6
- 3 SVK 0 ESP 5
- 4 SVK 0 ESP 5
- 5 SVK 0 ESP 4
- 6 SVK 0 ESP 4
- 7 SVK 0 ESP 3
- 8 SVK 0 ESP 3
- 9 SVK 0 ESP 2
- 10 SVK 0 ESP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Slovakia win 0%, 3% end level, Spain win 97%. The line is what actually happened: Spain by 5.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Slovakia by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Slovakia by 2 | 0.0% |
| Slovakia by 1 | 0.3% |
| Draw | 2.6% |
| Spain by 1 | 8.3% |
| Spain by 2 | 15.0% |
| Spain by 3+ | 73.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Slovakia | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | −0.09 |
 Spain | 19 (1 pen) | 3 | 3.22 | −0.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 18' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 47' | Aymeric Laporte scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 55' | Pablo Sarabia García scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 66' | Ferrán Torres García scored from a shot | 0.83 |
When it happened
Slovakia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | César Azpilicueta Tanco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% SVK |
| 2 | 11' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +19% SVK |
| 3 | 18' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +9% SVK |
| 4 | 18' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% SVK |
| 5 | 29' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SVK |
| 6 | 29' | Own goal by nan, for SpainOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +26% ESP |
| 7 | 47' | Aymeric Laporte scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +12% ESP |
| 8 | 55' | Pablo Sarabia García scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Slovakia 0% · draw 0% · Spain 100%
- Final margin
- Spain by 5
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Spain
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Spain by 3.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Slovakia 0% · draw 3% · Spain 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Spain win 98% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2020
- Switzerland 3–1 Turkey Jun 20, 2021 · replay 83% for Switzerland
- Italy 1–0 Wales Jun 20, 2021 · replay 86% for Italy
- Russia 1–4 Denmark Jun 21, 2021 · replay 86% for Denmark
- North Macedonia 0–3 Netherlands Jun 21, 2021 · replay 96% for Netherlands
- Finland 0–2 Belgium Jun 21, 2021 · replay 78% for Belgium
- Ukraine 0–1 Austria Jun 21, 2021 · replay 82% for Austria
- Croatia 3–1 Scotland Jun 22, 2021 · replay 48% for Croatia
- Czech Republic 0–1 England Jun 22, 2021 · replay 62% for England
- Portugal 2–2 France Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Germany 2–2 Hungary Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Sweden 3–2 Poland Jun 23, 2021 · replay 44% for Sweden