Matchday 3 · Euro 2020 · June 23, 2021
Sweden 3–2 Poland: who deserved to win?
Sweden beat Poland 3–2, but the replays lean toward Poland: 4 wins in 10 to Sweden’s 3, 3 end level. Poland made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.0.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Sweden lucky · −56 Poland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sweden win 3, 3 end level, Poland win 4.
- 1 SWE 1 POL 0
- 2 SWE 3 POL 1
- 3 SWE 3 POL 1
- 4 SWE 1 POL 1
- 5 SWE 2 POL 2
- 6 SWE 2 POL 2
- 7 SWE 0 POL 3
- 8 SWE 1 POL 3
- 9 SWE 1 POL 2
- 10 SWE 0 POL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sweden win 31%, 26% end level, Poland win 43%. The line is what actually happened: Sweden by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sweden by 3+ | 3.9% |
| Sweden by 2 | 8.8% |
| Sweden by 1 | 18.1% |
| Draw | 25.8% |
| Poland by 1 | 21.1% |
| Poland by 2 | 13.1% |
| Poland by 3+ | 9.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sweden | 11 | 3 | 1.04 | +1.96 |
 Poland | 18 | 2 | 1.66 | +0.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Emil Peter Forsberg scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 16' | Robert Lewandowski didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 58' | Emil Peter Forsberg scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 60' | Robert Lewandowski scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 83' | Robert Lewandowski scored from a shot | 0.49 |
| 93' | Viktor Claesson scored from a shot | 0.40 |
When it happened
Sweden’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Emil Peter Forsberg scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +19% SWE |
| 2 | 16' | Robert Lewandowski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +11% SWE |
| 3 | 58' | Emil Peter Forsberg scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +11% SWE |
| 4 | 60' | Robert Lewandowski scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +12% POL |
| 5 | 83' | Robert Lewandowski scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +23% POL |
| 6 | 88' | Jakub Świerczok didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% SWE |
| 7 | 90' | Karol Świderski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +4% SWE |
| 8 | 93' | Viktor Claesson scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +30% SWE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sweden 22% · draw 25% · Poland 53%
- Final margin
- Sweden by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Sweden
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Poland by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Sweden 31% · draw 26% · Poland 43% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sweden win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2020
- Switzerland 3–1 Turkey Jun 20, 2021 · replay 83% for Switzerland
- Italy 1–0 Wales Jun 20, 2021 · replay 86% for Italy
- Russia 1–4 Denmark Jun 21, 2021 · replay 86% for Denmark
- North Macedonia 0–3 Netherlands Jun 21, 2021 · replay 96% for Netherlands
- Finland 0–2 Belgium Jun 21, 2021 · replay 78% for Belgium
- Ukraine 0–1 Austria Jun 21, 2021 · replay 82% for Austria
- Croatia 3–1 Scotland Jun 22, 2021 · replay 48% for Croatia
- Czech Republic 0–1 England Jun 22, 2021 · replay 62% for England
- Portugal 2–2 France Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Germany 2–2 Hungary Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Slovakia 0–5 Spain Jun 23, 2021 · replay 98% for Spain