Matchday 3 · Euro 2020 · June 22, 2021
Croatia 3–1 Scotland: who deserved to win?
Croatia beat Scotland 3–1, but the replays call it even: Croatia win 3 of 10, Scotland 4, 3 end level. Scotland made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.8.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Croatia lucky · −52 Scotland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Croatia win 3, 3 end level, Scotland win 4.
- 1 CRO 3 SCO 2
- 2 CRO 1 SCO 0
- 3 CRO 3 SCO 1
- 4 CRO 1 SCO 1
- 5 CRO 1 SCO 1
- 6 CRO 0 SCO 0
- 7 CRO 0 SCO 3
- 8 CRO 0 SCO 1
- 9 CRO 1 SCO 2
- 10 CRO 1 SCO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Croatia win 32%, 33% end level, Scotland win 35%. The line is what actually happened: Croatia by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Croatia by 3+ | 2.9% |
| Croatia by 2 | 8.2% |
| Croatia by 1 | 21.2% |
| Draw | 32.5% |
| Scotland by 1 | 21.8% |
| Scotland by 2 | 9.8% |
| Scotland by 3+ | 3.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Croatia | 11 | 3 | 0.78 | +2.22 |
 Scotland | 11 | 1 | 1.11 | −0.11 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Nikola Vlašić scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 41' | Callum McGregor scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 49' | Joško Gvardiol didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 61' | Luka Modrić scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 76' | Ivan Perišić scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 92' | Scott McKenna didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
When it happened
Croatia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Nikola Vlašić scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +24% CRO |
| 2 | 23' | John McGinn didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% CRO |
| 3 | 41' | Callum McGregor scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +28% SCO |
| 4 | 49' | Joško Gvardiol didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +13% SCO |
| 5 | 58' | John McGinn didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +9% CRO |
| 6 | 61' | Luka Modrić scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +33% CRO |
| 7 | 73' | Ryan Fraser didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% CRO |
| 8 | 76' | Ivan Perišić scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +7% CRO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Croatia 57% · draw 26% · Scotland 18%
- Final margin
- Croatia by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Croatia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Croatia by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Croatia 32% · draw 33% · Scotland 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Croatia win 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2020
- Switzerland 3–1 Turkey Jun 20, 2021 · replay 83% for Switzerland
- Italy 1–0 Wales Jun 20, 2021 · replay 86% for Italy
- Russia 1–4 Denmark Jun 21, 2021 · replay 86% for Denmark
- North Macedonia 0–3 Netherlands Jun 21, 2021 · replay 96% for Netherlands
- Finland 0–2 Belgium Jun 21, 2021 · replay 78% for Belgium
- Ukraine 0–1 Austria Jun 21, 2021 · replay 82% for Austria
- Czech Republic 0–1 England Jun 22, 2021 · replay 62% for England
- Portugal 2–2 France Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Germany 2–2 Hungary Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Slovakia 0–5 Spain Jun 23, 2021 · replay 98% for Spain
- Sweden 3–2 Poland Jun 23, 2021 · replay 44% for Sweden