Matchday 3 · Euro 2020 · June 20, 2021
Switzerland 3–1 Turkey: who deserved to win?
Switzerland beat Turkey 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Switzerland win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Switzerland made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Switzerland | 3 | 1.98 |
 Turkey | 1 | 1.24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Switzerland about even · −17 Turkey
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Switzerland win 8, 1 ends level, Turkey win 1.
- 1 SUI 3 TUR 2
- 2 SUI 3 TUR 2
- 3 SUI 2 TUR 0
- 4 SUI 2 TUR 0
- 5 SUI 4 TUR 1
- 6 SUI 5 TUR 2
- 7 SUI 5 TUR 1
- 8 SUI 5 TUR 0
- 9 SUI 3 TUR 3
- 10 SUI 1 TUR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Switzerland win 76%, 14% end level, Turkey win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Switzerland by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Switzerland by 3+ | 34.6% |
| Switzerland by 2 | 21.3% |
| Switzerland by 1 | 19.8% |
| Draw | 14.0% |
| Turkey by 1 | 7.0% |
| Turkey by 2 | 2.3% |
| Turkey by 3+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Switzerland | 23 | 3 | 1.98 | +1.02 |
 Turkey | 20 | 1 | 1.24 | −0.24 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Haris Seferović scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 25' | Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 61' | İrfan Can Kahveci scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 67' | Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shot | 0.24 |
When it happened
Switzerland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Haris Seferović scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +23% SUI |
| 2 | 25' | Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +14% SUI |
| 3 | 27' | Xherdan Shaqiri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +1% TUR |
| 4 | 42' | Mert Müldür didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +4% SUI |
| 5 | 49' | Burak Yılmaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% SUI |
| 6 | 61' | İrfan Can Kahveci scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +11% TUR |
| 7 | 64' | Breel-Donald Embolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +2% TUR |
| 8 | 67' | Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +8% SUI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Switzerland 75% · draw 14% · Turkey 11%
- Final margin
- Switzerland by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Switzerland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Switzerland by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Switzerland 76% · draw 14% · Turkey 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Switzerland win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2020
- Italy 1–0 Wales Jun 20, 2021 · replay 86% for Italy
- Russia 1–4 Denmark Jun 21, 2021 · replay 86% for Denmark
- North Macedonia 0–3 Netherlands Jun 21, 2021 · replay 96% for Netherlands
- Finland 0–2 Belgium Jun 21, 2021 · replay 78% for Belgium
- Ukraine 0–1 Austria Jun 21, 2021 · replay 82% for Austria
- Croatia 3–1 Scotland Jun 22, 2021 · replay 48% for Croatia
- Czech Republic 0–1 England Jun 22, 2021 · replay 62% for England
- Portugal 2–2 France Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Germany 2–2 Hungary Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Slovakia 0–5 Spain Jun 23, 2021 · replay 98% for Spain
- Sweden 3–2 Poland Jun 23, 2021 · replay 44% for Sweden