Matchday 3 · Euro 2020 · June 21, 2021
Ukraine 0–1 Austria: who deserved to win?
Austria beat Ukraine 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Austria win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Austria made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.4.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Austria about even · −18 Ukraine
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ukraine win 1, 2 end level, Austria win 7.
- 1 UKR 2 AUT 1
- 2 UKR 1 AUT 1
- 3 UKR 0 AUT 0
- 4 UKR 0 AUT 4
- 5 UKR 0 AUT 3
- 6 UKR 1 AUT 3
- 7 UKR 0 AUT 2
- 8 UKR 0 AUT 2
- 9 UKR 0 AUT 1
- 10 UKR 1 AUT 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Ukraine win 8%, 21% end level, Austria win 71%. The line is what actually happened: Austria by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ukraine by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Ukraine by 2 | 1.0% |
| Ukraine by 1 | 6.3% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Austria by 1 | 27.4% |
| Austria by 2 | 22.7% |
| Austria by 3+ | 21.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ukraine | 5 | 0 | 0.41 | −0.41 |
 Austria | 18 | 1 | 1.49 | −0.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 20' | Christoph Baumgartner scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 41' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
When it happened
Ukraine’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Aleksandar Dragović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% UKR |
| 2 | 20' | Christoph Baumgartner scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +21% AUT |
| 3 | 28' | Mykola Shaparenko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% AUT |
| 4 | 41' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +5% UKR |
| 5 | 46' | Serhii Sydorchuk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% AUT |
| 6 | 46' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +3% UKR |
| 7 | 51' | Roman Yaremchuk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% AUT |
| 8 | 60' | Oleksandr Karavaev didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% AUT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ukraine 10% · draw 23% · Austria 67%
- Final margin
- Austria by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Ukraine
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Austria by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Ukraine 8% · draw 21% · Austria 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Austria win 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2020
- Switzerland 3–1 Turkey Jun 20, 2021 · replay 83% for Switzerland
- Italy 1–0 Wales Jun 20, 2021 · replay 86% for Italy
- Russia 1–4 Denmark Jun 21, 2021 · replay 86% for Denmark
- North Macedonia 0–3 Netherlands Jun 21, 2021 · replay 96% for Netherlands
- Finland 0–2 Belgium Jun 21, 2021 · replay 78% for Belgium
- Croatia 3–1 Scotland Jun 22, 2021 · replay 48% for Croatia
- Czech Republic 0–1 England Jun 22, 2021 · replay 62% for England
- Portugal 2–2 France Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Germany 2–2 Hungary Jun 23, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Slovakia 0–5 Spain Jun 23, 2021 · replay 98% for Spain
- Sweden 3–2 Poland Jun 23, 2021 · replay 44% for Sweden