Matchday 2 · Euro 2024 · June 19, 2024
Croatia 2–2 Albania: who deserved to win?
Croatia and Albania drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Croatia win 4 of 10, Albania 4, and 2 end level. Croatia made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.3. An own goal helped Croatia.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −4 Croatia about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Croatia win 4, 2 end level, Albania win 4.
- 1 CRO 1 ALB 0
- 2 CRO 2 ALB 1
- 3 CRO 2 ALB 0
- 4 CRO 3 ALB 0
- 5 CRO 1 ALB 1
- 6 CRO 2 ALB 2
- 7 CRO 0 ALB 3
- 8 CRO 0 ALB 2
- 9 CRO 0 ALB 1
- 10 CRO 0 ALB 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Croatia win 43%, 23% end level, Albania win 34%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Croatia by 3+ | 10.1% |
| Croatia by 2 | 12.8% |
| Croatia by 1 | 19.9% |
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Albania by 1 | 17.6% |
| Albania by 2 | 9.9% |
| Albania by 3+ | 6.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Croatia | 21 | 1 | 1.86 | −0.86 |
 Albania | 14 | 2 | 1.33 | +0.67 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Qazim Laçi scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 30' | Kristjan Asllani didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
| 73' | Andrej Kramarić scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 94' | Klaus Gjasula scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
Croatia’s chance of winning
As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Qazim Laçi scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +21% ALB |
| 2 | 30' | Kristjan Asllani didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +6% CRO |
| 3 | 56' | Bruno Petković didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% ALB |
| 4 | 57' | Josip Šutalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +9% ALB |
| 5 | 73' | Andrej Kramarić scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +33% CRO |
| 6 | 75' | Luka Sučić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chanceOwn goal by nan, for CroatiaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +30% CRO |
| 7 | 92' | Mirlind Daku didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +7% CRO |
| 8 | 94' | Klaus Gjasula scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +44% ALB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Croatia 48% · draw 23% · Albania 29%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Albania
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Croatia by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Croatia 43% · draw 23% · Albania 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 2, 2024
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