Matchday 2 · Euro 2024 · June 19, 2024
Scotland 1–1 Switzerland: who deserved to win?
Scotland and Switzerland drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Scotland win 3 of 10, Switzerland 4, and 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 1.0).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Scotland | 1 | 0.77 |
 Switzerland | 1 | 0.99 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Scotland about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Scotland win 3, 3 end level, Switzerland win 4.
- 1 SCO 1 SUI 0
- 2 SCO 2 SUI 1
- 3 SCO 2 SUI 0
- 4 SCO 1 SUI 1
- 5 SCO 0 SUI 0
- 6 SCO 2 SUI 2
- 7 SCO 0 SUI 2
- 8 SCO 0 SUI 2
- 9 SCO 0 SUI 1
- 10 SCO 0 SUI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Scotland win 28%, 33% end level, Switzerland win 39%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Scotland by 3+ | 2.0% |
| Scotland by 2 | 7.0% |
| Scotland by 1 | 19.4% |
| Draw | 33.1% |
| Switzerland by 1 | 23.2% |
| Switzerland by 2 | 10.8% |
| Switzerland by 3+ | 4.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Scotland | 12 | 1 | 0.77 | +0.23 |
 Switzerland | 11 | 1 | 0.99 | +0.01 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Scott McTominay scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 25' | Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Scotland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Scott McTominay scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +23% SCO |
| 2 | 25' | Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +25% SUI |
| 3 | 31' | Dan Ndoye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% SCO |
| 4 | 40' | Che Adams didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SUI |
| 5 | 57' | Dan Ndoye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +10% SCO |
| 6 | 66' | Grant Campbell Hanley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% SUI |
| 7 | 80' | Scott McTominay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% SUI |
| 8 | 89' | Mohamed Zeki Amdouni didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% SCO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Scotland 27% · draw 32% · Switzerland 40%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Scotland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Switzerland by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Scotland 28% · draw 33% · Switzerland 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 2, 2024
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- Germany 2–0 Hungary Jun 19, 2024 · replay 67% for Germany
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- Spain 1–0 Italy Jun 20, 2024 · replay 87% for Spain
- Poland 1–3 Austria Jun 21, 2024 · replay 69% for Austria
- Slovakia 1–2 Ukraine Jun 21, 2024 · replay 69% for Ukraine
- Netherlands 0–0 France Jun 21, 2024 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Georgia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 22, 2024 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Turkey 0–3 Portugal Jun 22, 2024 · replay 84% for Portugal
- Belgium 2–0 Romania Jun 22, 2024 · replay 71% for Belgium