luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 2 · Euro 2024 · June 20, 2024

Spain 1–0 Italy: who deserved to win?

Spain beat Italy 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Spain win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Spain made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.1. An own goal helped Spain.

Full time

GoalsxG
Spain 1 1.53
Italy 0 0.14

June 20, 2024 · VELTINS-Arena · Referee: Slavko Vinčić

Luck index +13 Spain about even · −13 Italy

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Spain win 8, 2 end level, Italy win 0.

  1. 1 ESP 2 ITA 1
  2. 2 ESP 1 ITA 0
  3. 3 ESP 1 ITA 0
  4. 4 ESP 2 ITA 0
  5. 5 ESP 2 ITA 0
  6. 6 ESP 2 ITA 0
  7. 7 ESP 3 ITA 0
  8. 8 ESP 4 ITA 0
  9. 9 ESP 0 ITA 0
  10. 10 ESP 0 ITA 0

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Spain win 77%, 19% end level, Italy win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Spain by 1.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Spain by 3+22.1%
Spain by 224.3%
Spain by 130.9%
Draw19.3%
Italy by 13.1%
Italy by 20.3%
Italy by 3+0.0%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Spain2001.53−1.53
Italy400.14−0.14

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Spain’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Spain was ahead in it, below while Italy was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 1' Pedro González López didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance +5% ITA
2 9' Nicholas Williams Arthuer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance +4% ITA
3 23' Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +2% ITA
4 27' Rodrigo Hernández Cascante didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +2% ITA
5 40' Fabián Ruiz Peña didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% ITA
6 51' Pedro González López didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance +7% ITA
7 54' Own goal by nan, for SpainOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full +32% ESP
8 85' Bryan Cristante didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% ESP

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Spain 75% · draw 21% · Italy 3%

Final margin
Spain by 1
Luck in goals
0.1 for Italy
Luck-adjusted margin
Spain by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Spain 77% · draw 19% · Italy 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Spain win 87% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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