luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 2 · Euro 2024 · June 20, 2024

Slovenia 1–1 Serbia: who deserved to win?

Slovenia and Serbia drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Slovenia win 4 of 10, Serbia 4, and 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.6 expected goals to 1.5).

Full time

GoalsxG
Slovenia 1 1.55
Serbia 1 1.46

June 20, 2024 · Allianz Arena · Referee: István Kovács

Luck index −4 Slovenia about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Slovenia win 4, 2 end level, Serbia win 4.

  1. 1 SVN 1 SRB 0
  2. 2 SVN 3 SRB 2
  3. 3 SVN 2 SRB 0
  4. 4 SVN 3 SRB 0
  5. 5 SVN 2 SRB 2
  6. 6 SVN 1 SRB 1
  7. 7 SVN 1 SRB 4
  8. 8 SVN 2 SRB 4
  9. 9 SVN 1 SRB 2
  10. 10 SVN 1 SRB 2

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Slovenia win 42%, 24% end level, Serbia win 35%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Slovenia by 3+9.3%
Slovenia by 212.3%
Slovenia by 120.4%
Draw23.5%
Serbia by 119.3%
Serbia by 29.5%
Serbia by 3+5.9%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Slovenia1211.55−0.55
Serbia1511.46−0.46

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
37'Andraž Šporar didn’t score from a shot0.46
68'Žan Karničnik scored from a shot0.34
94'Luka Jović scored from a shot0.14

When it happened

Slovenia’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Slovenia was ahead in it, below while Serbia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 37' Timi Elšnik didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance +5% SRB
2 37' Andraž Šporar didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 46% chance +13% SRB
3 37' Benjamin Šeško didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance +7% SRB
4 41' Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance +9% SVN
5 46' Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance +7% SVN
6 68' Žan Karničnik scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance +25% SVN
7 71' Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance +7% SVN
8 94' Luka Jović scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +43% SRB

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Slovenia 41% · draw 27% · Serbia 33%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.1 for Serbia
Luck-adjusted margin
Slovenia by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Slovenia 42% · draw 24% · Serbia 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

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