Matchday 2 · Euro 2024 · June 19, 2024
Germany 2–0 Hungary: who deserved to win?
Germany beat Hungary 2–0, and the replays lean Germany’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Hungary, 2 end level. Germany made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.2.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Germany lucky · −33 Hungary
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Germany win 6, 2 end level, Hungary win 2.
- 1 GER 2 HUN 1
- 2 GER 1 HUN 0
- 3 GER 1 HUN 0
- 4 GER 2 HUN 0
- 5 GER 3 HUN 1
- 6 GER 4 HUN 1
- 7 GER 1 HUN 1
- 8 GER 0 HUN 0
- 9 GER 0 HUN 2
- 10 GER 1 HUN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Germany win 56%, 22% end level, Hungary win 22%. The line is what actually happened: Germany by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Germany by 3+ | 14.1% |
| Germany by 2 | 18.3% |
| Germany by 1 | 23.5% |
| Draw | 22.0% |
| Hungary by 1 | 13.4% |
| Hungary by 2 | 6.2% |
| Hungary by 3+ | 2.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Germany | 19 | 2 | 1.48 | +0.52 |
 Hungary | 11 | 0 | 1.23 | −1.23 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 0' | Roland Sallai didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 21' | Jamal Musiala scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 66' | İlkay Gündoğan scored from a shot | 0.22 |
When it happened
Germany’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Roland Sallai didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +10% GER |
| 2 | 4' | Kai Havertz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% HUN |
| 3 | 10' | Kai Havertz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% HUN |
| 4 | 21' | Jamal Musiala scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +22% GER |
| 5 | 28' | Dominik Szoboszlai didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% GER |
| 6 | 57' | Dominik Szoboszlai didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chanceRoland Sallai didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% GER |
| 7 | 59' | Barnabás Varga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +7% GER |
| 8 | 66' | İlkay Gündoğan scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +8% GER |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Germany 68% · draw 19% · Hungary 12%
- Final margin
- Germany by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Germany
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Germany by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Germany 56% · draw 22% · Hungary 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Germany win 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2024
- Scotland 1–1 Switzerland Jun 19, 2024 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Croatia 2–2 Albania Jun 19, 2024 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Slovenia 1–1 Serbia Jun 20, 2024 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Denmark 1–1 England Jun 20, 2024 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Spain 1–0 Italy Jun 20, 2024 · replay 87% for Spain
- Poland 1–3 Austria Jun 21, 2024 · replay 69% for Austria
- Slovakia 1–2 Ukraine Jun 21, 2024 · replay 69% for Ukraine
- Netherlands 0–0 France Jun 21, 2024 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Georgia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 22, 2024 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Turkey 0–3 Portugal Jun 22, 2024 · replay 84% for Portugal
- Belgium 2–0 Romania Jun 22, 2024 · replay 71% for Belgium