Matchday 2 · Euro 2024 · June 22, 2024
Georgia 1–1 Czech Republic: who deserved to win?
Georgia and Czech Republic drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Georgia win 2 of 10, Czech Republic 6, and 2 end level. Czech Republic made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Georgia | 1 | 1.18 |
 Czech Republic | 1 | 2.87 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Georgia lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia win 2, 2 end level, Czech Republic win 6.
- 1 GEO 2 CZE 1
- 2 GEO 3 CZE 1
- 3 GEO 1 CZE 1
- 4 GEO 2 CZE 2
- 5 GEO 0 CZE 4
- 6 GEO 0 CZE 3
- 7 GEO 0 CZE 3
- 8 GEO 0 CZE 2
- 9 GEO 2 CZE 3
- 10 GEO 1 CZE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Georgia win 16%, 16% end level, Czech Republic win 68%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia by 3+ | 1.8% |
| Georgia by 2 | 4.6% |
| Georgia by 1 | 9.6% |
| Draw | 16.4% |
| Czech Republic by 1 | 20.8% |
| Czech Republic by 2 | 19.7% |
| Czech Republic by 3+ | 27.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Georgia | 5 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.18 | −0.18 |
 Czech Republic | 27 | 1 | 2.87 | −1.87 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Václav Černý didn’t score from a shot | 0.53 |
| 48' | Georges Mikautadze scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 58' | Patrik Schick scored from a shot | 0.72 |
| 94' | Saba Lobzhanidze didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Georgia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Patrik Schick didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% GEO |
| 2 | 22' | Adam Hložek didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +8% GEO |
| 3 | 26' | Václav Černý didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +14% GEO |
| 4 | 48' | Georges Mikautadze scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% GEO |
| 5 | 49' | Patrik Schick didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% GEO |
| 6 | 58' | Ondřej Lingr didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +6% GEO |
| 7 | 58' | Patrik Schick scored from a shotFinishing · 72% chance | +10% CZE |
| 8 | 94' | Saba Lobzhanidze didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +15% CZE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia 7% · draw 16% · Czech Republic 77%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Georgia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Czech Republic by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia 16% · draw 16% · Czech Republic 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 2, 2024
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- Croatia 2–2 Albania Jun 19, 2024 · drawn; replay 23% draws
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- Denmark 1–1 England Jun 20, 2024 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Spain 1–0 Italy Jun 20, 2024 · replay 87% for Spain
- Poland 1–3 Austria Jun 21, 2024 · replay 69% for Austria
- Slovakia 1–2 Ukraine Jun 21, 2024 · replay 69% for Ukraine
- Netherlands 0–0 France Jun 21, 2024 · drawn; replay 29% draws
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