luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 2 · Euro 2024 · June 21, 2024

Netherlands 0–0 France: who deserved to win?

Netherlands and France drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Netherlands win 2 of 10, France 5, and 3 end level. France made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.7.

Full time

GoalsxG
Netherlands 0 0.74
France 0 1.22

June 21, 2024 · Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1 · Referee: Anthony Taylor

Luck index +13 Netherlands about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Netherlands win 2, 3 end level, France win 5.

  1. 1 NED 1 FRA 0
  2. 2 NED 3 FRA 1
  3. 3 NED 1 FRA 1
  4. 4 NED 1 FRA 1
  5. 5 NED 0 FRA 0
  6. 6 NED 2 FRA 5
  7. 7 NED 0 FRA 2
  8. 8 NED 2 FRA 3
  9. 9 NED 1 FRA 2
  10. 10 NED 0 FRA 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Netherlands win 23%, 29% end level, France win 48%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Netherlands by 3+1.8%
Netherlands by 25.3%
Netherlands by 116.1%
Draw28.6%
France by 125.4%
France by 214.4%
France by 3+8.4%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Netherlands900.74−0.74
France1501.22−1.22

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
64'Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shot0.38

When it happened

Netherlands’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Netherlands was ahead in it, below while France was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 13' Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +2% NED
2 56' Adrien Rabiot didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance +6% NED
3 59' Marcus Thuram didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +3% NED
4 62' Aurélien Djani Tchouaméni didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +2% NED
5 64' Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance +14% NED
6 68' Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance +11% FRA
7 68' Xavi Simons didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +4% FRA
8 90' N'Golo Kanté didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +4% NED

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Netherlands 22% · draw 30% · France 48%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.4 for Netherlands
Luck-adjusted margin
France by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Netherlands 23% · draw 29% · France 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 2 matches, 2024 · Netherlands · France

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