Matchday 2 · Euro 2024 · June 22, 2024
Belgium 2–0 Romania: who deserved to win?
Belgium beat Romania 2–0, and the replays lean Belgium’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Romania, 2 end level. Belgium made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Belgium lucky · −29 Romania
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Belgium win 6, 2 end level, Romania win 2.
- 1 BEL 3 ROU 2
- 2 BEL 3 ROU 2
- 3 BEL 2 ROU 0
- 4 BEL 3 ROU 1
- 5 BEL 4 ROU 1
- 6 BEL 4 ROU 0
- 7 BEL 0 ROU 0
- 8 BEL 0 ROU 0
- 9 BEL 0 ROU 2
- 10 BEL 1 ROU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Belgium win 61%, 20% end level, Romania win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Belgium by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Belgium by 3+ | 19.8% |
| Belgium by 2 | 17.7% |
| Belgium by 1 | 23.7% |
| Draw | 20.3% |
| Romania by 1 | 12.3% |
| Romania by 2 | 4.8% |
| Romania by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belgium | 20 | 2 | 1.65 | +0.35 |
 Romania | 14 | 0 | 1.25 | −1.25 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Youri Tielemans scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 67' | Dennis Man didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 79' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 84' | Denis Alibec didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
When it happened
Belgium’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Youri Tielemans scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +22% BEL |
| 2 | 4' | Radu Drăgușin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% BEL |
| 3 | 44' | Andrei Burcă Andonie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% BEL |
| 4 | 47' | Valentin Mihai Mihăilă didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% BEL |
| 5 | 58' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% ROU |
| 6 | 65' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +2% ROU |
| 7 | 67' | Dennis Man didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +12% BEL |
| 8 | 79' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% BEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Belgium 71% · draw 17% · Romania 12%
- Final margin
- Belgium by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Belgium
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Belgium by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Belgium 61% · draw 20% · Romania 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Belgium win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2024
- Scotland 1–1 Switzerland Jun 19, 2024 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Croatia 2–2 Albania Jun 19, 2024 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Germany 2–0 Hungary Jun 19, 2024 · replay 67% for Germany
- Slovenia 1–1 Serbia Jun 20, 2024 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Denmark 1–1 England Jun 20, 2024 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Spain 1–0 Italy Jun 20, 2024 · replay 87% for Spain
- Poland 1–3 Austria Jun 21, 2024 · replay 69% for Austria
- Slovakia 1–2 Ukraine Jun 21, 2024 · replay 69% for Ukraine
- Netherlands 0–0 France Jun 21, 2024 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Georgia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 22, 2024 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Turkey 0–3 Portugal Jun 22, 2024 · replay 84% for Portugal