Matchday 2 · Euro 2024 · June 21, 2024
Poland 1–3 Austria: who deserved to win?
Austria beat Poland 3–1, and the replays lean Austria’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Poland, 2 end level. Austria made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.4.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Austria lucky · −31 Poland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Poland win 2, 2 end level, Austria win 6.
- 1 POL 2 AUT 1
- 2 POL 2 AUT 0
- 3 POL 1 AUT 1
- 4 POL 3 AUT 3
- 5 POL 0 AUT 4
- 6 POL 0 AUT 3
- 7 POL 0 AUT 2
- 8 POL 1 AUT 3
- 9 POL 2 AUT 3
- 10 POL 1 AUT 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Poland win 21%, 20% end level, Austria win 59%. The line is what actually happened: Austria by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Poland by 3+ | 2.8% |
| Poland by 2 | 5.2% |
| Poland by 1 | 12.8% |
| Draw | 20.1% |
| Austria by 1 | 22.6% |
| Austria by 2 | 17.0% |
| Austria by 3+ | 19.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Poland | 15 | 1 | 1.44 | −0.44 |
 Austria | 15 (1 pen) | 3 | 1.82 | +1.18 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Gernot Trauner scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 29' | Krzysztof Piątek scored from a shot | 0.45 |
| 65' | Christoph Baumgartner scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 77' | Marko Arnautović scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Poland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Gernot Trauner scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +21% AUT |
| 2 | 16' | Piotr Zieliński didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% AUT |
| 3 | 17' | Nicola Zalewski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% AUT |
| 4 | 29' | Jan Bednarek didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% AUT |
| 5 | 29' | Krzysztof Piątek scored from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +15% POL |
| 6 | 38' | Marcel Sabitzer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% POL |
| 7 | 65' | Christoph Baumgartner scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +32% AUT |
| 8 | 68' | Karol Świderski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% AUT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Poland 11% · draw 16% · Austria 73%
- Final margin
- Austria by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Austria
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Austria by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Poland 21% · draw 20% · Austria 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Austria win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2024
- Scotland 1–1 Switzerland Jun 19, 2024 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Croatia 2–2 Albania Jun 19, 2024 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Germany 2–0 Hungary Jun 19, 2024 · replay 67% for Germany
- Slovenia 1–1 Serbia Jun 20, 2024 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Denmark 1–1 England Jun 20, 2024 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Spain 1–0 Italy Jun 20, 2024 · replay 87% for Spain
- Slovakia 1–2 Ukraine Jun 21, 2024 · replay 69% for Ukraine
- Netherlands 0–0 France Jun 21, 2024 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Georgia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 22, 2024 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Turkey 0–3 Portugal Jun 22, 2024 · replay 84% for Portugal
- Belgium 2–0 Romania Jun 22, 2024 · replay 71% for Belgium