Matchday 2 · Euro 2024 · June 22, 2024
Turkey 0–3 Portugal: who deserved to win?
Portugal beat Turkey 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Portugal win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Portugal made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.8. An own goal helped Portugal.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Portugal about even · −16 Turkey
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Turkey win 1, 1 ends level, Portugal win 8.
- 1 TUR 1 POR 0
- 2 TUR 1 POR 1
- 3 TUR 0 POR 5
- 4 TUR 0 POR 4
- 5 TUR 1 POR 4
- 6 TUR 1 POR 4
- 7 TUR 0 POR 2
- 8 TUR 1 POR 3
- 9 TUR 2 POR 3
- 10 TUR 0 POR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Turkey win 8%, 14% end level, Portugal win 77%. The line is what actually happened: Portugal by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Turkey by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Turkey by 2 | 1.7% |
| Turkey by 1 | 6.1% |
| Draw | 14.4% |
| Portugal by 1 | 21.9% |
| Portugal by 2 | 21.3% |
| Portugal by 3+ | 34.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Turkey | 11 | 0 | 0.78 | −0.78 |
 Portugal | 12 | 2 | 1.90 | +0.10 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 20' | Bernardo Mota Veiga de Carvalho e Silva scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 55' | Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandes scored from a shot | 0.85 |
When it happened
Turkey’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% TUR |
| 2 | 4' | Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% POR |
| 3 | 5' | Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +11% POR |
| 4 | 7' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% TUR |
| 5 | 14' | Rafael Alexandre Conceição Leão didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% TUR |
| 6 | 20' | Bernardo Mota Veiga de Carvalho e Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +18% POR |
| 7 | 28' | Own goal by nan, for PortugalOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +15% POR |
| 8 | 30' | Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% POR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Turkey 2% · draw 9% · Portugal 89%
- Final margin
- Portugal by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Portugal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Portugal by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Turkey 8% · draw 14% · Portugal 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Portugal win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2024
- Scotland 1–1 Switzerland Jun 19, 2024 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Croatia 2–2 Albania Jun 19, 2024 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Germany 2–0 Hungary Jun 19, 2024 · replay 67% for Germany
- Slovenia 1–1 Serbia Jun 20, 2024 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Denmark 1–1 England Jun 20, 2024 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Spain 1–0 Italy Jun 20, 2024 · replay 87% for Spain
- Poland 1–3 Austria Jun 21, 2024 · replay 69% for Austria
- Slovakia 1–2 Ukraine Jun 21, 2024 · replay 69% for Ukraine
- Netherlands 0–0 France Jun 21, 2024 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Georgia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 22, 2024 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Belgium 2–0 Romania Jun 22, 2024 · replay 71% for Belgium