Matchday 2 · Euro 2024 · June 21, 2024
Slovakia 1–2 Ukraine: who deserved to win?
Ukraine beat Slovakia 2–1, and the replays lean Ukraine’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Slovakia, 3 end level. Ukraine made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.8.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Ukraine lucky · −31 Slovakia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Slovakia win 2, 3 end level, Ukraine win 5.
- 1 SVK 2 UKR 1
- 2 SVK 3 UKR 1
- 3 SVK 0 UKR 0
- 4 SVK 0 UKR 0
- 5 SVK 0 UKR 0
- 6 SVK 0 UKR 3
- 7 SVK 0 UKR 2
- 8 SVK 0 UKR 1
- 9 SVK 0 UKR 1
- 10 SVK 0 UKR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Slovakia win 18%, 26% end level, Ukraine win 56%. The line is what actually happened: Ukraine by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Slovakia by 3+ | 1.0% |
| Slovakia by 2 | 4.8% |
| Slovakia by 1 | 12.4% |
| Draw | 25.6% |
| Ukraine by 1 | 26.3% |
| Ukraine by 2 | 17.6% |
| Ukraine by 3+ | 12.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Slovakia | 14 | 1 | 0.75 | +0.25 |
 Ukraine | 13 | 2 | 1.73 | +0.27 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Ivan Schranz scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 28' | Andriy Yarmolenko didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 50' | Artem Dovbyk didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 53' | Mykola Shaparenko scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 79' | Roman Yaremchuk scored from a shot | 0.39 |
When it happened
Slovakia’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Ivan Schranz scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +22% SVK |
| 2 | 28' | Andriy Yarmolenko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +9% SVK |
| 3 | 33' | Andriy Yarmolenko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% SVK |
| 4 | 50' | Artem Dovbyk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +10% SVK |
| 5 | 53' | The game turned hereMykola Shaparenko scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +25% UKR |
| 6 | 73' | Mykhailo Mudryk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SVK |
| 7 | 79' | Roman Yaremchuk scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +26% UKR |
| 8 | 80' | László Bénes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% UKR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Slovakia 15% · draw 22% · Ukraine 63%
- Final margin
- Ukraine by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ukraine by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Slovakia 18% · draw 26% · Ukraine 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Ukraine win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2024
- Scotland 1–1 Switzerland Jun 19, 2024 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Croatia 2–2 Albania Jun 19, 2024 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Germany 2–0 Hungary Jun 19, 2024 · replay 67% for Germany
- Slovenia 1–1 Serbia Jun 20, 2024 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Denmark 1–1 England Jun 20, 2024 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Spain 1–0 Italy Jun 20, 2024 · replay 87% for Spain
- Poland 1–3 Austria Jun 21, 2024 · replay 69% for Austria
- Netherlands 0–0 France Jun 21, 2024 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Georgia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 22, 2024 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Turkey 0–3 Portugal Jun 22, 2024 · replay 84% for Portugal
- Belgium 2–0 Romania Jun 22, 2024 · replay 71% for Belgium