Matchday 2 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 28, 2015
Villarreal 3–1 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Espanyol 3–1, and the replays lean Villarreal’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Espanyol, 2 end level. Villarreal made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 3 | 1.48 |
 Espanyol | 1 | 0.59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Villarreal lucky · −27 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 6, 2 end level, Espanyol win 2.
- 1 VIL 2 ESP 1
- 2 VIL 2 ESP 1
- 3 VIL 2 ESP 1
- 4 VIL 2 ESP 0
- 5 VIL 3 ESP 0
- 6 VIL 4 ESP 0
- 7 VIL 0 ESP 0
- 8 VIL 1 ESP 1
- 9 VIL 0 ESP 1
- 10 VIL 0 ESP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 61%, 24% end level, Espanyol win 15%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 14.5% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 19.0% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 27.2% |
| Draw | 23.9% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 11.2% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 3.1% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 15 | 3 | 1.48 | +1.52 |
 Espanyol | 5 | 1 | 0.59 | +0.41 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 66' | Roberto Soldado Rillo scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 86' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 92' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shot | 0.79 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +17% ESP |
| 2 | 23' | Antonio José Raillo Arenas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% VIL |
| 3 | 38' | Mario Gaspar Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ESP |
| 4 | 45' | Manuel Trigueros Muñoz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ESP |
| 5 | 61' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% VIL |
| 6 | 66' | The game turned hereRoberto Soldado Rillo scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +37% VIL |
| 7 | 82' | Samuel García Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +12% ESP |
| 8 | 86' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +44% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 88% · draw 9% · Espanyol 3%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 61% · draw 24% · Espanyol 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 73% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Real Madrid 5–0 Betis Aug 29, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Celta 3–0 Rayo Aug 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Celta
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Sporting Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Barcelona 1–0 Málaga Aug 29, 2015 · replay 83% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 0–3 Atlético Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Atlético
- Eibar 2–0 Athletic Aug 30, 2015 · replay 82% for Eibar
- Getafe 1–2 Granada Aug 30, 2015 · replay 74% for Granada
- Valencia 1–1 Deportivo Aug 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Las Palmas 0–0 Levante Aug 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws