Matchday 2 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 29, 2015
Real Sociedad 0–0 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Real Sociedad and Sporting drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Real Sociedad win 5 of 10, Sporting 1, and 4 end level. Real Sociedad made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 0 | 0.91 |
 Sporting Gijón | 0 | 0.23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −21 Real Sociedad about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 5, 4 end level, Sporting win 1.
- 1 RSO 1 SPO 0
- 2 RSO 1 SPO 0
- 3 RSO 1 SPO 0
- 4 RSO 2 SPO 0
- 5 RSO 3 SPO 0
- 6 RSO 0 SPO 0
- 7 RSO 0 SPO 0
- 8 RSO 0 SPO 0
- 9 RSO 1 SPO 1
- 10 RSO 0 SPO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 52%, 37% end level, Sporting win 11%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 5.6% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 14.3% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 32.3% |
| Draw | 37.0% |
| Sporting by 1 | 9.2% |
| Sporting by 2 | 1.5% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 14 | 0 | 0.91 | −0.91 |
 Sporting | 7 | 0 | 0.23 | −0.23 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Miguel Ángel Guerrero Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% RSO |
| 2 | 14' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SPO |
| 3 | 32' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +6% SPO |
| 4 | 52' | Sergio Álvarez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% RSO |
| 5 | 54' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SPO |
| 6 | 67' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +8% SPO |
| 7 | 79' | Markel Bergara Larrañaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% SPO |
| 8 | 91' | Íñigo Martínez Berridi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% SPO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 53% · draw 36% · Sporting 10%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Sporting
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Sociedad by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 52% · draw 37% · Sporting 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 2 matches, 2015-16 · Real Sociedad · Sporting
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Villarreal 3–1 Espanyol Aug 28, 2015 · replay 73% for Villarreal
- Real Madrid 5–0 Betis Aug 29, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Celta 3–0 Rayo Aug 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Celta
- Barcelona 1–0 Málaga Aug 29, 2015 · replay 83% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 0–3 Atlético Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Atlético
- Eibar 2–0 Athletic Aug 30, 2015 · replay 82% for Eibar
- Getafe 1–2 Granada Aug 30, 2015 · replay 74% for Granada
- Valencia 1–1 Deportivo Aug 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Las Palmas 0–0 Levante Aug 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws