Matchday 2 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 30, 2015
Getafe 1–2 Granada: who deserved to win?
Granada beat Getafe 2–1, and the replays lean Granada’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Getafe, 3 end level. Granada made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 1 | 0.58 |
 Granada | 2 | 1.22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Granada lucky · −26 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 1, 3 end level, Granada win 6.
- 1 GET 2 GRA 1
- 2 GET 0 GRA 0
- 3 GET 0 GRA 0
- 4 GET 0 GRA 0
- 5 GET 0 GRA 3
- 6 GET 0 GRA 2
- 7 GET 0 GRA 2
- 8 GET 0 GRA 1
- 9 GET 0 GRA 1
- 10 GET 0 GRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 12%, 28% end level, Granada win 60%. The line is what actually happened: Granada by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Getafe by 2 | 2.0% |
| Getafe by 1 | 9.7% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
| Granada by 1 | 28.9% |
| Granada by 2 | 18.7% |
| Granada by 3+ | 12.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 15 | 1 | 0.58 | +0.42 |
 Granada | 9 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.22 | +0.78 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 28' | Isaac Ajayi Success scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 79' | Ángel Lafita Castillo scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21' | Rubén Rochina Naixes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% GET |
| 2 | 25' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% GRA |
| 3 | 28' | Isaac Ajayi Success scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +17% GRA |
| 4 | 74' | Ángel Lafita Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +1% GRA |
| 5 | 79' | Ángel Lafita Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +7% GET |
| 6 | 88' | Wanderson Maciel Sousa Campos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% GRA |
| 7 | 90' | Ángel Lafita Castillo didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 2% chance | +1% GRA |
| 8 | 94' | Mehdi Lacen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% GRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 13% · draw 27% · Granada 60%
- Final margin
- Granada by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Granada by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 12% · draw 28% · Granada 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Granada win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 2 matches, 2015-16 · Getafe · Granada
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Villarreal 3–1 Espanyol Aug 28, 2015 · replay 73% for Villarreal
- Real Madrid 5–0 Betis Aug 29, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Celta 3–0 Rayo Aug 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Celta
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Sporting Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Barcelona 1–0 Málaga Aug 29, 2015 · replay 83% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 0–3 Atlético Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Atlético
- Eibar 2–0 Athletic Aug 30, 2015 · replay 82% for Eibar
- Valencia 1–1 Deportivo Aug 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Las Palmas 0–0 Levante Aug 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws