Matchday 2 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 29, 2015
Celta 3–0 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Rayo 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Celta win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Celta made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 0.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 3 | 2.16 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0.13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Celta about even · −6 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 9, 1 ends level, Rayo win 0.
- 1 CEL 2 RAY 1
- 2 CEL 1 RAY 0
- 3 CEL 2 RAY 0
- 4 CEL 2 RAY 0
- 5 CEL 3 RAY 1
- 6 CEL 3 RAY 0
- 7 CEL 3 RAY 0
- 8 CEL 4 RAY 0
- 9 CEL 5 RAY 0
- 10 CEL 1 RAY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 90%, 9% end level, Rayo win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 44.2% |
| Celta by 2 | 25.6% |
| Celta by 1 | 20.2% |
| Draw | 8.7% |
| Rayo by 1 | 1.2% |
| Rayo by 2 | 0.1% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 13 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.16 | +0.84 |
 Rayo | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | −0.13 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 41' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 49' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 87' | Andreu Fontàs Prat scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% CEL |
| 2 | 19' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% RAY |
| 3 | 21' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +3% RAY |
| 4 | 29' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% RAY |
| 5 | 30' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% RAY |
| 6 | 41' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +5% RAY |
| 7 | 47' | Hugo Mallo Novegil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% RAY |
| 8 | 49' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +11% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 99% · draw 1% · Rayo 0%
- Final margin
- Celta by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 90% · draw 9% · Rayo 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 94% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Villarreal 3–1 Espanyol Aug 28, 2015 · replay 73% for Villarreal
- Real Madrid 5–0 Betis Aug 29, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Sporting Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Barcelona 1–0 Málaga Aug 29, 2015 · replay 83% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 0–3 Atlético Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Atlético
- Eibar 2–0 Athletic Aug 30, 2015 · replay 82% for Eibar
- Getafe 1–2 Granada Aug 30, 2015 · replay 74% for Granada
- Valencia 1–1 Deportivo Aug 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Las Palmas 0–0 Levante Aug 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws