Matchday 2 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 30, 2015
Valencia 1–1 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Valencia and Deportivo drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Valencia win 5 of 10, Deportivo 2, and 3 end level. Valencia made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 1 | 1.55 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 1 | 0.79 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −16 Valencia about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 5, 3 end level, Deportivo win 2.
- 1 VAL 2 DEP 1
- 2 VAL 1 DEP 0
- 3 VAL 2 DEP 1
- 4 VAL 2 DEP 0
- 5 VAL 3 DEP 0
- 6 VAL 0 DEP 0
- 7 VAL 1 DEP 1
- 8 VAL 2 DEP 2
- 9 VAL 1 DEP 3
- 10 VAL 0 DEP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 53%, 26% end level, Deportivo win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 10.2% |
| Valencia by 2 | 16.1% |
| Valencia by 1 | 26.5% |
| Draw | 26.2% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 14.1% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 5.4% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 13 | 1 | 1.55 | −0.55 |
 Deportivo | 12 | 1 | 0.79 | +0.21 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 38' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 44' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.58 |
| 52' | Danilo Barbosa da Silva didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 24% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +9% VAL |
| 2 | 24' | Sidnei Rechel da Silva Júnior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% VAL |
| 3 | 38' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +29% DEP |
| 4 | 44' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +14% VAL |
| 5 | 52' | Danilo Barbosa da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +10% DEP |
| 6 | 73' | Rodrigo Javier De Paul didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% DEP |
| 7 | 87' | Shkodran Mustafi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% DEP |
| 8 | 92' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +10% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 58% · draw 26% · Deportivo 16%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Valencia by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 53% · draw 26% · Deportivo 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Villarreal 3–1 Espanyol Aug 28, 2015 · replay 73% for Villarreal
- Real Madrid 5–0 Betis Aug 29, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Celta 3–0 Rayo Aug 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Celta
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Sporting Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Barcelona 1–0 Málaga Aug 29, 2015 · replay 83% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 0–3 Atlético Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Atlético
- Eibar 2–0 Athletic Aug 30, 2015 · replay 82% for Eibar
- Getafe 1–2 Granada Aug 30, 2015 · replay 74% for Granada
- Las Palmas 0–0 Levante Aug 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws