Matchday 2 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 30, 2015
Las Palmas 0–0 Levante: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas and Levante drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Las Palmas win 5 of 10, Levante 0, and 5 end level. Las Palmas made the better chances: 0.7 expected goals to 0.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 0 | 0.70 |
 Levante | 0 | 0.15 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −19 Las Palmas about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 5, 5 end level, Levante win 0.
- 1 LPA 2 LEV 1
- 2 LPA 1 LEV 0
- 3 LPA 1 LEV 0
- 4 LPA 1 LEV 0
- 5 LPA 2 LEV 0
- 6 LPA 0 LEV 0
- 7 LPA 0 LEV 0
- 8 LPA 0 LEV 0
- 9 LPA 0 LEV 0
- 10 LPA 1 LEV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 46%, 45% end level, Levante win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 3.3% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 11.3% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 31.4% |
| Draw | 45.4% |
| Levante by 1 | 7.9% |
| Levante by 2 | 0.7% |
| Levante by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 16 | 0 | 0.70 | −0.70 |
 Levante | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | −0.15 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | José María Martín-Bejarano Serrano didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% LPA |
| 2 | 36' | Roque Mesa Quevedo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% LEV |
| 3 | 51' | Juan Emmanuel Culio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% LEV |
| 4 | 68' | Aythami Artiles Oliva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% LEV |
| 5 | 79' | Juan Emmanuel Culio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% LEV |
| 6 | 82' | Hernán Daniel Santana Trujillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% LEV |
| 7 | 87' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% LEV |
| 8 | 91' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +2% LEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 48% · draw 43% · Levante 8%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Las Palmas by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 46% · draw 45% · Levante 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 2 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Levante
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Villarreal 3–1 Espanyol Aug 28, 2015 · replay 73% for Villarreal
- Real Madrid 5–0 Betis Aug 29, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Celta 3–0 Rayo Aug 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Celta
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- Barcelona 1–0 Málaga Aug 29, 2015 · replay 83% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 0–3 Atlético Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Atlético
- Eibar 2–0 Athletic Aug 30, 2015 · replay 82% for Eibar
- Getafe 1–2 Granada Aug 30, 2015 · replay 74% for Granada
- Valencia 1–1 Deportivo Aug 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws