Matchday 2 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 29, 2015
Barcelona 1–0 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Málaga 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.4.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Barcelona about even · −17 Málaga
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 7, 2 end level, Málaga win 1.
- 1 BAR 1 MAL 0
- 2 BAR 1 MAL 0
- 3 BAR 2 MAL 0
- 4 BAR 2 MAL 0
- 5 BAR 2 MAL 0
- 6 BAR 4 MAL 1
- 7 BAR 4 MAL 0
- 8 BAR 1 MAL 1
- 9 BAR 0 MAL 0
- 10 BAR 0 MAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 74%, 19% end level, Málaga win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 24.0% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 23.3% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 26.5% |
| Draw | 18.6% |
| Málaga by 1 | 6.3% |
| Málaga by 2 | 1.1% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 23 | 1 | 1.83 | −0.83 |
 Málaga | 4 | 0 | 0.43 | −0.43 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 72' | Thomas Vermaelen scored from a shot | 0.26 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25' | Javier Alejandro Mascherano didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +6% MAL |
| 2 | 34' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% BAR |
| 3 | 51' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% MAL |
| 4 | 60' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% MAL |
| 5 | 61' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% MAL |
| 6 | 71' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% MAL |
| 7 | 72' | Thomas Vermaelen scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +29% BAR |
| 8 | 92' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +10% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 72% · draw 20% · Málaga 7%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 74% · draw 19% · Málaga 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Villarreal 3–1 Espanyol Aug 28, 2015 · replay 73% for Villarreal
- Real Madrid 5–0 Betis Aug 29, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Celta 3–0 Rayo Aug 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Celta
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Sporting Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Sevilla 0–3 Atlético Aug 30, 2015 · replay 49% for Atlético
- Eibar 2–0 Athletic Aug 30, 2015 · replay 82% for Eibar
- Getafe 1–2 Granada Aug 30, 2015 · replay 74% for Granada
- Valencia 1–1 Deportivo Aug 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Las Palmas 0–0 Levante Aug 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws