Matchday 2 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 30, 2015
Sevilla 0–3 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Sevilla 3–0, but the replays call it even: Atlético win 3 of 10, Sevilla 4, 3 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 0 | 1.62 |
 Atlético Madrid | 3 | 1.09 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 Atlético lucky · −51 Sevilla
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 4, 3 end level, Atlético win 3.
- 1 SEV 1 ATM 0
- 2 SEV 1 ATM 0
- 3 SEV 3 ATM 1
- 4 SEV 3 ATM 0
- 5 SEV 2 ATM 2
- 6 SEV 1 ATM 1
- 7 SEV 2 ATM 2
- 8 SEV 0 ATM 3
- 9 SEV 2 ATM 3
- 10 SEV 1 ATM 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sevilla win 38%, 25% end level, Atlético win 36%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sevilla by 3+ | 6.8% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 11.1% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 20.4% |
| Draw | 25.4% |
| Atlético by 1 | 20.7% |
| Atlético by 2 | 10.3% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 5.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 25 | 0 | 1.62 | −1.62 |
 Atlético | 17 | 3 | 1.09 | +1.91 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 34' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 77' | Gabriel Fernández Arenas scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 84' | Jackson Arley Martínez Valencia scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Sevilla’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Grzegorz Krychowiak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +5% ATM |
| 2 | 34' | The game turned hereJorge Resurrección Merodio scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +21% ATM |
| 3 | 37' | Adil Rami didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% ATM |
| 4 | 60' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% ATM |
| 5 | 64' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +11% ATM |
| 6 | 71' | Adil Rami didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% ATM |
| 7 | 74' | Yevhen Konoplyanka didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ATM |
| 8 | 77' | Gabriel Fernández Arenas scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +8% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sevilla 26% · draw 24% · Atlético 50%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.6 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Sevilla 38% · draw 25% · Atlético 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 49% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Villarreal 3–1 Espanyol Aug 28, 2015 · replay 73% for Villarreal
- Real Madrid 5–0 Betis Aug 29, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Celta 3–0 Rayo Aug 29, 2015 · replay 94% for Celta
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Sporting Aug 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Barcelona 1–0 Málaga Aug 29, 2015 · replay 83% for Barcelona
- Eibar 2–0 Athletic Aug 30, 2015 · replay 82% for Eibar
- Getafe 1–2 Granada Aug 30, 2015 · replay 74% for Granada
- Valencia 1–1 Deportivo Aug 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Las Palmas 0–0 Levante Aug 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws