Matchday 3 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 12, 2015
Espanyol 0–6 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Espanyol 6–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 3.4 expected goals to 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 0 | 1.75 |
 Real Madrid | 6 | 3.40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Real Madrid about even · −7 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 0, 1 ends level, Real Madrid win 9.
- 1 ESP 3 RMA 3
- 2 ESP 1 RMA 9
- 3 ESP 1 RMA 7
- 4 ESP 1 RMA 6
- 5 ESP 0 RMA 4
- 6 ESP 0 RMA 4
- 7 ESP 1 RMA 4
- 8 ESP 3 RMA 5
- 9 ESP 0 RMA 2
- 10 ESP 2 RMA 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 4%, 6% end level, Real Madrid win 90%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 6.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 1.1% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 2.8% |
| Draw | 5.5% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 11.3% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 13.9% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 65.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 15 | 0 | 1.75 | −1.75 |
 Real Madrid | 15 (1 pen) | 6 | 3.40 | +2.60 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 16' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 19' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 27' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.57 |
| 61' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.59 |
| 71' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 71' | Salvador Sevilla López didn’t score from a shot | 0.62 |
| 80' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.23 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% RMA |
| 2 | 3' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ESP |
| 3 | 6' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +19% RMA |
| 4 | 16' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +4% RMA |
| 5 | 19' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +6% RMA |
| 6 | 24' | Salvador Sevilla López didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +0% RMA |
| 7 | 27' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 57% chance | +1% RMA |
| 8 | 30' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +0% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 1% · draw 3% · Real Madrid 97%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 6
- Luck in goals
- 3.3 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 2.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 4% · draw 6% · Real Madrid 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 93% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
- Levante 1–1 Sevilla Sep 11, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Sporting 0–1 Valencia Sep 12, 2015 · replay 61% for Valencia
- Betis 1–0 Real Sociedad Sep 12, 2015 · replay 49% for Betis
- Atlético 1–2 Barcelona Sep 12, 2015 · replay 75% for Barcelona
- Granada 1–3 Villarreal Sep 13, 2015 · replay 62% for Villarreal
- Athletic 3–1 Getafe Sep 13, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Málaga 0–0 Eibar Sep 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Celta 3–3 Las Palmas Sep 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 4% draws
- Rayo 1–3 Deportivo Sep 14, 2015 · replay 76% for Deportivo