Matchday 3 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 11, 2015
Levante 1–1 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Levante and Sevilla drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Levante win 4 of 10, Sevilla 3, and 3 end level. Levante made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 1.0.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −3 Levante about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 4, 3 end level, Sevilla win 3.
- 1 LEV 1 SEV 0
- 2 LEV 2 SEV 1
- 3 LEV 4 SEV 2
- 4 LEV 3 SEV 0
- 5 LEV 0 SEV 0
- 6 LEV 0 SEV 0
- 7 LEV 0 SEV 0
- 8 LEV 0 SEV 2
- 9 LEV 0 SEV 1
- 10 LEV 2 SEV 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 39%, 28% end level, Sevilla win 32%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 6.0% |
| Levante by 2 | 11.0% |
| Levante by 1 | 22.2% |
| Draw | 28.3% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 18.8% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 9.3% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 4.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 14 | 1 | 1.44 | −0.44 |
 Sevilla | 8 | 1 | 0.99 | +0.01 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Steven N''Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 39' | Víctor Machín Pérez didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 57' | Víctor Camarasa Ferrando scored from a shot | 0.94 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% LEV |
| 2 | 11' | Steven N''Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +25% SEV |
| 3 | 39' | Víctor Machín Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +7% LEV |
| 4 | 46' | Nabil Ghilas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SEV |
| 5 | 56' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% SEV |
| 6 | 76' | Ciro Immobile didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% LEV |
| 7 | 87' | Jorge Andújar Moreno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% LEV |
| 8 | 90' | Ciro Immobile didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% LEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 48% · draw 32% · Sevilla 20%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Sevilla
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Levante by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 39% · draw 28% · Sevilla 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
- Sporting 0–1 Valencia Sep 12, 2015 · replay 61% for Valencia
- Betis 1–0 Real Sociedad Sep 12, 2015 · replay 49% for Betis
- Espanyol 0–6 Real Madrid Sep 12, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Madrid
- Atlético 1–2 Barcelona Sep 12, 2015 · replay 75% for Barcelona
- Granada 1–3 Villarreal Sep 13, 2015 · replay 62% for Villarreal
- Athletic 3–1 Getafe Sep 13, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Málaga 0–0 Eibar Sep 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Celta 3–3 Las Palmas Sep 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 4% draws
- Rayo 1–3 Deportivo Sep 14, 2015 · replay 76% for Deportivo