Matchday 3 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 13, 2015
Granada 1–3 Villarreal: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Granada 3–1, and the replays lean Villarreal’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Granada, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.0 expected goals to 1.1).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 1 | 1.03 |
 Villarreal | 3 | 1.06 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Villarreal lucky · −38 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 2, 3 end level, Villarreal win 5.
- 1 GRA 2 VIL 1
- 2 GRA 2 VIL 0
- 3 GRA 0 VIL 0
- 4 GRA 1 VIL 1
- 5 GRA 0 VIL 0
- 6 GRA 0 VIL 3
- 7 GRA 0 VIL 2
- 8 GRA 0 VIL 1
- 9 GRA 0 VIL 1
- 10 GRA 0 VIL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 24%, 28% end level, Villarreal win 47%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 1.9% |
| Granada by 2 | 6.2% |
| Granada by 1 | 16.2% |
| Draw | 28.2% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 25.7% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 13.1% |
| Villarreal by 3+ | 8.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 14 | 1 | 1.03 | −0.03 |
 Villarreal | 9 | 3 | 1.06 | +1.94 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 48' | Manuel Trigueros Muñoz scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 50' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shot | 0.37 |
| 73' | Francisco Manuel Rico Castro scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 90' | Samuel García Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48' | The game turned hereManuel Trigueros Muñoz scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +30% VIL |
| 2 | 50' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +10% VIL |
| 3 | 73' | Francisco Manuel Rico Castro scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +9% GRA |
| 4 | 75' | Robert Ibáñez Castro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% VIL |
| 5 | 78' | Isaac Ajayi Success didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% VIL |
| 6 | 78' | Robert Ibáñez Castro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% VIL |
| 7 | 89' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +14% VIL |
| 8 | 89' | Rene Krhin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 13% · draw 21% · Villarreal 66%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 24% · draw 28% · Villarreal 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 3 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Villarreal
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
- Levante 1–1 Sevilla Sep 11, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Sporting 0–1 Valencia Sep 12, 2015 · replay 61% for Valencia
- Betis 1–0 Real Sociedad Sep 12, 2015 · replay 49% for Betis
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- Málaga 0–0 Eibar Sep 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
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- Rayo 1–3 Deportivo Sep 14, 2015 · replay 76% for Deportivo