Matchday 3 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 12, 2015
Atlético 1–2 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Atlético 2–1, and the replays lean Barcelona’s way: 7 wins in 10, 1 for Atlético, 2 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 0.71 |
 Barcelona | 2 | 1.73 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Barcelona lucky · −25 Atlético
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 1, 2 end level, Barcelona win 7.
- 1 ATM 1 BAR 0
- 2 ATM 0 BAR 0
- 3 ATM 0 BAR 0
- 4 ATM 0 BAR 4
- 5 ATM 0 BAR 3
- 6 ATM 0 BAR 2
- 7 ATM 0 BAR 2
- 8 ATM 2 BAR 3
- 9 ATM 0 BAR 1
- 10 ATM 1 BAR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 14%, 22% end level, Barcelona win 63%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 1.0% |
| Atlético by 2 | 2.9% |
| Atlético by 1 | 10.3% |
| Draw | 22.4% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 25.4% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 20.3% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 17.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 11 | 1 | 0.71 | +0.29 |
 Barcelona | 14 | 2 | 1.73 | +0.27 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 23' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 50' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 54' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a free kick | 0.06 |
| 76' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.20 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +12% ATM |
| 2 | 34' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% ATM |
| 3 | 50' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +24% ATM |
| 4 | 54' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +30% BAR |
| 5 | 64' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% ATM |
| 6 | 66' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +9% ATM |
| 7 | 76' | The game turned hereLionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +34% BAR |
| 8 | 83' | Jackson Arley Martínez Valencia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 14% · draw 23% · Barcelona 64%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 14% · draw 22% · Barcelona 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
- Levante 1–1 Sevilla Sep 11, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Sporting 0–1 Valencia Sep 12, 2015 · replay 61% for Valencia
- Betis 1–0 Real Sociedad Sep 12, 2015 · replay 49% for Betis
- Espanyol 0–6 Real Madrid Sep 12, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Madrid
- Granada 1–3 Villarreal Sep 13, 2015 · replay 62% for Villarreal
- Athletic 3–1 Getafe Sep 13, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Málaga 0–0 Eibar Sep 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Celta 3–3 Las Palmas Sep 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 4% draws
- Rayo 1–3 Deportivo Sep 14, 2015 · replay 76% for Deportivo