Matchday 3 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 14, 2015
Rayo 1–3 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Deportivo beat Rayo 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Deportivo win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Deportivo made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0.68 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 3 | 1.34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Deportivo about even · −24 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 1, 2 end level, Deportivo win 7.
- 1 RAY 1 DEP 0
- 2 RAY 1 DEP 1
- 3 RAY 1 DEP 1
- 4 RAY 0 DEP 4
- 5 RAY 1 DEP 4
- 6 RAY 1 DEP 3
- 7 RAY 0 DEP 2
- 8 RAY 0 DEP 1
- 9 RAY 1 DEP 2
- 10 RAY 0 DEP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 12%, 23% end level, Deportivo win 65%. The line is what actually happened: Deportivo by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 0.6% |
| Rayo by 2 | 2.3% |
| Rayo by 1 | 9.5% |
| Draw | 22.6% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 26.5% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 20.6% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 18.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 8 | 1 | 0.68 | +0.32 |
 Deportivo | 14 | 3 | 1.34 | +1.66 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Celso Borges Mora scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 26' | Adrián Embarba Blázquez scored from a shot | 0.45 |
| 27' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 60' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 92' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% DEP |
| 2 | 6' | Celso Borges Mora scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +22% DEP |
| 3 | 22' | Adrián Embarba Blázquez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% DEP |
| 4 | 24' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% RAY |
| 5 | 26' | Adrián Embarba Blázquez scored from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +16% RAY |
| 6 | 27' | The game turned hereLuis Alberto Romero Alconchel scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +27% DEP |
| 7 | 34' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% RAY |
| 8 | 60' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +11% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 4% · draw 14% · Deportivo 81%
- Final margin
- Deportivo by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Deportivo by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 12% · draw 23% · Deportivo 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Deportivo win 76% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
- Levante 1–1 Sevilla Sep 11, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Sporting 0–1 Valencia Sep 12, 2015 · replay 61% for Valencia
- Betis 1–0 Real Sociedad Sep 12, 2015 · replay 49% for Betis
- Espanyol 0–6 Real Madrid Sep 12, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Madrid
- Atlético 1–2 Barcelona Sep 12, 2015 · replay 75% for Barcelona
- Granada 1–3 Villarreal Sep 13, 2015 · replay 62% for Villarreal
- Athletic 3–1 Getafe Sep 13, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Málaga 0–0 Eibar Sep 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Celta 3–3 Las Palmas Sep 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 4% draws