Matchday 3 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 13, 2015
Celta 3–3 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Celta and Las Palmas drew 3–3. Replayed with the way both teams played, Celta win 9 of 10, Las Palmas 1, and 0 end level. Celta made the better chances: 4.3 expected goals to 1.3. An own goal helped Las Palmas.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 3 | 4.29 |
 Las Palmas | 3 | 1.25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −45 Celta unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 9, 0 end level, Las Palmas win 1.
- 1 CEL 3 LPA 2
- 2 CEL 5 LPA 3
- 3 CEL 5 LPA 2
- 4 CEL 4 LPA 1
- 5 CEL 4 LPA 0
- 6 CEL 6 LPA 1
- 7 CEL 6 LPA 1
- 8 CEL 7 LPA 1
- 9 CEL 8 LPA 0
- 10 CEL 1 LPA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 93%, 4% end level, Las Palmas win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 70.3% |
| Celta by 2 | 14.1% |
| Celta by 1 | 8.8% |
| Draw | 4.0% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 1.9% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 0.6% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 26 (1 pen) | 3 | 4.29 | −1.29 |
 Las Palmas | 9 | 2 | 1.25 | +0.75 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 17' | Daniel Wass didn’t score from a shot | 0.68 |
| 17' | Daniel Wass scored from a shot | 0.82 |
| 22' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo scored from a shot | 0.60 |
| 47' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 73' | David Simón Rodríguez Santana scored from a shot | 0.20 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +7% LPA |
| 2 | 7' | Roque Mesa Quevedo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +7% CEL |
| 3 | 17' | Daniel Wass didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 68% chance | +9% LPA |
| 4 | 22' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo scored from a shotFinishing · 60% chance | +5% LPA |
| 5 | 47' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +7% CEL |
| 6 | 60' | Own goal by nan, for Las PalmasOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +10% LPA |
| 7 | 73' | David Simón Rodríguez Santana scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +31% LPA |
| 8 | 79' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 94% · draw 4% · Las Palmas 2%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 2.5 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 93% · draw 4% · Las Palmas 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 3 matches, 2015-16 · Celta · Las Palmas
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