Matchday 3 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 12, 2015
Sporting 0–1 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Valencia beat Sporting 1–0, and the replays lean Valencia’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Sporting, 2 end level. Valencia made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 0 | 1.10 |
 Valencia | 1 | 1.62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Valencia lucky · −39 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 3, 2 end level, Valencia win 5.
- 1 SPO 2 VAL 1
- 2 SPO 1 VAL 0
- 3 SPO 2 VAL 0
- 4 SPO 1 VAL 1
- 5 SPO 2 VAL 2
- 6 SPO 0 VAL 4
- 7 SPO 1 VAL 3
- 8 SPO 1 VAL 3
- 9 SPO 1 VAL 2
- 10 SPO 3 VAL 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 27%, 24% end level, Valencia win 49%. The line is what actually happened: Valencia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 3.1% |
| Sporting by 2 | 7.3% |
| Sporting by 1 | 16.3% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Valencia by 1 | 22.1% |
| Valencia by 2 | 15.0% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 11.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 15 | 0 | 1.10 | −1.10 |
 Valencia | 17 | 1 | 1.62 | −0.62 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 90' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shot | 0.53 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% SPO |
| 2 | 35' | Pablo Daniel Piatti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% SPO |
| 3 | 48' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% SPO |
| 4 | 50' | Daniel Parejo Muñoz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% SPO |
| 5 | 64' | Pablo Pérez Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +10% VAL |
| 6 | 84' | Ignacio Cases Mora didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +7% VAL |
| 7 | 86' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% SPO |
| 8 | 90' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +23% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 23% · draw 25% · Valencia 52%
- Final margin
- Valencia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Valencia by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 27% · draw 24% · Valencia 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Valencia win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 3 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Valencia
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
- Levante 1–1 Sevilla Sep 11, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Betis 1–0 Real Sociedad Sep 12, 2015 · replay 49% for Betis
- Espanyol 0–6 Real Madrid Sep 12, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Madrid
- Atlético 1–2 Barcelona Sep 12, 2015 · replay 75% for Barcelona
- Granada 1–3 Villarreal Sep 13, 2015 · replay 62% for Villarreal
- Athletic 3–1 Getafe Sep 13, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Málaga 0–0 Eibar Sep 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Celta 3–3 Las Palmas Sep 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 4% draws
- Rayo 1–3 Deportivo Sep 14, 2015 · replay 76% for Deportivo