Matchday 3 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 12, 2015
Betis 1–0 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Betis beat Real Sociedad 1–0, but the replays call it even: Betis win 3 of 10, Real Sociedad 3, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.5 expected goals to 0.7).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 | 0.53 |
 Real Sociedad | 0 | 0.70 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 Betis lucky · −51 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 3, 4 end level, Real Sociedad win 3.
- 1 BET 1 RSO 0
- 2 BET 1 RSO 0
- 3 BET 2 RSO 0
- 4 BET 0 RSO 0
- 5 BET 0 RSO 0
- 6 BET 0 RSO 0
- 7 BET 0 RSO 0
- 8 BET 0 RSO 2
- 9 BET 1 RSO 2
- 10 BET 0 RSO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 28%, 41% end level, Real Sociedad win 31%. The line is what actually happened: Betis by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 1.4% |
| Betis by 2 | 5.9% |
| Betis by 1 | 20.8% |
| Draw | 41.4% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 22.2% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 6.5% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 1.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 9 | 1 | 0.53 | +0.47 |
 Real Sociedad | 15 | 0 | 0.70 | −0.70 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 40' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Bruno González Cabrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% RSO |
| 2 | 14' | Jorge Molina Vidal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% RSO |
| 3 | 40' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +26% BET |
| 4 | 45' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% BET |
| 5 | 78' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% BET |
| 6 | 79' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% BET |
| 7 | 82' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% BET |
| 8 | 83' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 27% · draw 37% · Real Sociedad 36%
- Final margin
- Betis by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Betis by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 28% · draw 41% · Real Sociedad 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Betis win 49% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
- Levante 1–1 Sevilla Sep 11, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Sporting 0–1 Valencia Sep 12, 2015 · replay 61% for Valencia
- Espanyol 0–6 Real Madrid Sep 12, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Madrid
- Atlético 1–2 Barcelona Sep 12, 2015 · replay 75% for Barcelona
- Granada 1–3 Villarreal Sep 13, 2015 · replay 62% for Villarreal
- Athletic 3–1 Getafe Sep 13, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Málaga 0–0 Eibar Sep 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Celta 3–3 Las Palmas Sep 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 4% draws
- Rayo 1–3 Deportivo Sep 14, 2015 · replay 76% for Deportivo