Matchday 9 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 23, 2015
Rayo 3–0 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Rayo beat Espanyol 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Rayo win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rayo made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 2.25 |
 Espanyol | 0 | 1.31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Rayo about even · −20 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 7, 2 end level, Espanyol win 1.
- 1 RAY 2 ESP 1
- 2 RAY 2 ESP 1
- 3 RAY 2 ESP 0
- 4 RAY 3 ESP 1
- 5 RAY 3 ESP 0
- 6 RAY 4 ESP 1
- 7 RAY 5 ESP 0
- 8 RAY 0 ESP 0
- 9 RAY 1 ESP 1
- 10 RAY 1 ESP 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 71%, 17% end level, Espanyol win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Rayo by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 30.3% |
| Rayo by 2 | 20.5% |
| Rayo by 1 | 20.6% |
| Draw | 16.9% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 7.5% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 3.2% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 13 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.25 | +0.75 |
 Espanyol | 9 (1 pen) | 0 | 1.31 | −1.31 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 35' | Roberto Trashorras Gayoso scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 75' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shot | 0.78 |
| 77' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 92' | Jorge Franco Alviz didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Víctor Guillermo Álvarez Delgado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% RAY |
| 2 | 12' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% ESP |
| 3 | 17' | Patrick Ebert didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% ESP |
| 4 | 18' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% ESP |
| 5 | 35' | Roberto Trashorras Gayoso scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% RAY |
| 6 | 59' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% RAY |
| 7 | 73' | Álvaro González Soberón didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% RAY |
| 8 | 75' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shotFinishing · 78% chance | +2% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 88% · draw 9% · Espanyol 3%
- Final margin
- Rayo by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 71% · draw 17% · Espanyol 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Rayo win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 9, 2015-16
- Sevilla 5–0 Getafe Oct 24, 2015 · replay 99% for Sevilla
- Málaga 2–0 Deportivo Oct 24, 2015 · replay 50% for Málaga
- Celta 1–3 Real Madrid Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Real Madrid
- Granada 1–1 Betis Oct 24, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Atlético 2–1 Valencia Oct 25, 2015 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Barcelona 3–1 Eibar Oct 25, 2015 · replay 70% for Barcelona
- Levante 0–4 Real Sociedad Oct 25, 2015 · replay 95% for Real Sociedad
- Las Palmas 0–0 Villarreal Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 56% draws
- Athletic 3–0 Sporting Oct 26, 2015 · replay 97% for Athletic