Matchday 9 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 24, 2015
Celta 1–3 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Celta 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 1.60 |
 Real Madrid | 3 | 2.10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Real Madrid about even · −22 Celta
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 1, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 7.
- 1 CEL 2 RMA 1
- 2 CEL 2 RMA 2
- 3 CEL 1 RMA 1
- 4 CEL 0 RMA 5
- 5 CEL 0 RMA 4
- 6 CEL 1 RMA 4
- 7 CEL 0 RMA 2
- 8 CEL 2 RMA 4
- 9 CEL 0 RMA 1
- 10 CEL 1 RMA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 15%, 15% end level, Real Madrid win 70%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 1.6% |
| Celta by 2 | 3.7% |
| Celta by 1 | 9.2% |
| Draw | 15.3% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 19.8% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 19.3% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 31.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 17 | 1 | 1.60 | −0.60 |
 Real Madrid | 14 | 3 | 2.10 | +0.90 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 22' | Danilo Luiz da Silva scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 84' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 95' | Marcelo Vieira da Silva Júnior scored from a shot | 0.47 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | The game turned hereCristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +21% RMA |
| 2 | 12' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% RMA |
| 3 | 17' | Gustavo Daniel Cabral Cáceres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% RMA |
| 4 | 22' | Danilo Luiz da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +12% RMA |
| 5 | 38' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +5% RMA |
| 6 | 71' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +3% RMA |
| 7 | 84' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +4% CEL |
| 8 | 85' | John Guidetti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 13% · draw 16% · Real Madrid 71%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 15% · draw 15% · Real Madrid 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 78% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 9, 2015-16
- Rayo 3–0 Espanyol Oct 23, 2015 · replay 80% for Rayo
- Sevilla 5–0 Getafe Oct 24, 2015 · replay 99% for Sevilla
- Málaga 2–0 Deportivo Oct 24, 2015 · replay 50% for Málaga
- Granada 1–1 Betis Oct 24, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Atlético 2–1 Valencia Oct 25, 2015 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Barcelona 3–1 Eibar Oct 25, 2015 · replay 70% for Barcelona
- Levante 0–4 Real Sociedad Oct 25, 2015 · replay 95% for Real Sociedad
- Las Palmas 0–0 Villarreal Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 56% draws
- Athletic 3–0 Sporting Oct 26, 2015 · replay 97% for Athletic