Matchday 9 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 26, 2015
Athletic 3–0 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Sporting 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Athletic win 9 of 10. Athletic made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 3 | 2.89 |
 Sporting Gijón | 0 | 0.18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Athletic about even · −3 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 9, 0 end level, Sporting win 1.
- 1 ATH 1 SPO 0
- 2 ATH 2 SPO 0
- 3 ATH 3 SPO 1
- 4 ATH 3 SPO 0
- 5 ATH 3 SPO 0
- 6 ATH 4 SPO 0
- 7 ATH 5 SPO 0
- 8 ATH 5 SPO 0
- 9 ATH 7 SPO 0
- 10 ATH 0 SPO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 95%, 4% end level, Sporting win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 63.7% |
| Athletic by 2 | 19.1% |
| Athletic by 1 | 12.1% |
| Draw | 4.2% |
| Sporting by 1 | 0.9% |
| Sporting by 2 | 0.0% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 20 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.89 | +0.11 |
 Sporting | 6 | 0 | 0.18 | −0.18 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Markel Susaeta Laskurain scored from a shot | 0.82 |
| 41' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 41' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 66' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Alen Halilović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ATH |
| 2 | 18' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SPO |
| 3 | 23' | Aymeric Laporte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% SPO |
| 4 | 23' | Xabier Etxeita Gorritxategi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% SPO |
| 5 | 28' | Markel Susaeta Laskurain scored from a shotFinishing · 82% chance | +5% ATH |
| 6 | 41' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +9% SPO |
| 7 | 41' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +10% ATH |
| 8 | 66' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 100% · draw 0% · Sporting 0%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 95% · draw 4% · Sporting 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 97% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 9 matches, 2015-16 · Athletic · Sporting
More from matchday 9, 2015-16
- Rayo 3–0 Espanyol Oct 23, 2015 · replay 80% for Rayo
- Sevilla 5–0 Getafe Oct 24, 2015 · replay 99% for Sevilla
- Málaga 2–0 Deportivo Oct 24, 2015 · replay 50% for Málaga
- Celta 1–3 Real Madrid Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Real Madrid
- Granada 1–1 Betis Oct 24, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Atlético 2–1 Valencia Oct 25, 2015 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Barcelona 3–1 Eibar Oct 25, 2015 · replay 70% for Barcelona
- Levante 0–4 Real Sociedad Oct 25, 2015 · replay 95% for Real Sociedad
- Las Palmas 0–0 Villarreal Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 56% draws