luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 9 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 25, 2015

Las Palmas 0–0 Villarreal: who deserved to win?

Las Palmas and Villarreal drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Las Palmas win 2 of 10, Villarreal 2, and 6 end level. The chances were close to even (0.3 expected goals to 0.3).

Full time

GoalsxG
Las Palmas 0 0.30
Villarreal 0 0.32

October 25, 2015 · Estadio de Gran Canaria · Referee: Xavier Estrada Fernández

Luck index +1 Las Palmas about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Las Palmas win 2, 6 end level, Villarreal win 2.

  1. 1 LPA 1 VIL 0
  2. 2 LPA 1 VIL 0
  3. 3 LPA 0 VIL 0
  4. 4 LPA 0 VIL 0
  5. 5 LPA 0 VIL 0
  6. 6 LPA 0 VIL 0
  7. 7 LPA 0 VIL 0
  8. 8 LPA 0 VIL 0
  9. 9 LPA 0 VIL 1
  10. 10 LPA 0 VIL 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Las Palmas win 21%, 56% end level, Villarreal win 23%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Las Palmas by 3+0.3%
Las Palmas by 22.8%
Las Palmas by 117.7%
Draw56.0%
Villarreal by 119.1%
Villarreal by 23.6%
Villarreal by 3+0.4%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Las Palmas700.30−0.30
Villarreal500.32−0.32

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Las Palmas’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Las Palmas was ahead in it, below while Villarreal was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 10' Bruno Soriano Llido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +4% LPA
2 18' Samuel Castillejo Azuaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +1% LPA
3 57' Nabil El Zhar didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% VIL
4 72' Hernán Daniel Santana Trujillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +1% VIL
5 84' Mario Gaspar Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +3% LPA
6 89' Samuel Castillejo Azuaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance +2% LPA
7 92' Aythami Artiles Oliva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance +6% VIL
8 92' Pedro Bigas Rigo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance +2% VIL

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Las Palmas 22% · draw 53% · Villarreal 25%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
none
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Las Palmas 21% · draw 56% · Villarreal 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 9 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Villarreal

More from matchday 9, 2015-16

Every match of matchday 9, 2015-16