Matchday 9 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 25, 2015
Atlético 2–1 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Valencia 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 2 | 1.99 |
 Valencia | 1 | 0.87 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Atlético about even · −16 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 8, 1 ends level, Valencia win 1.
- 1 ATM 1 VAL 0
- 2 ATM 1 VAL 0
- 3 ATM 3 VAL 1
- 4 ATM 2 VAL 0
- 5 ATM 2 VAL 0
- 6 ATM 4 VAL 1
- 7 ATM 4 VAL 1
- 8 ATM 5 VAL 1
- 9 ATM 1 VAL 1
- 10 ATM 1 VAL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 77%, 15% end level, Valencia win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 32.9% |
| Atlético by 2 | 21.6% |
| Atlético by 1 | 22.4% |
| Draw | 14.6% |
| Valencia by 1 | 6.7% |
| Valencia by 2 | 1.4% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 16 | 2 | 1.99 | +0.01 |
 Valencia | 7 (1 pen) | 1 | 0.87 | +0.13 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 31' | Jackson Arley Martínez Valencia scored from a shot | 0.48 |
| 34' | Jackson Arley Martínez Valencia didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 39' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 71' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% VAL |
| 2 | 10' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% VAL |
| 3 | 16' | Gabriel Fernández Arenas didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +2% VAL |
| 4 | 23' | José María Giménez de Vargas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% VAL |
| 5 | 31' | Jackson Arley Martínez Valencia scored from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +14% ATM |
| 6 | 34' | Jackson Arley Martínez Valencia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +4% VAL |
| 7 | 39' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +11% ATM |
| 8 | 71' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +2% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 67% · draw 23% · Valencia 10%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 77% · draw 15% · Valencia 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 9, 2015-16
- Rayo 3–0 Espanyol Oct 23, 2015 · replay 80% for Rayo
- Sevilla 5–0 Getafe Oct 24, 2015 · replay 99% for Sevilla
- Málaga 2–0 Deportivo Oct 24, 2015 · replay 50% for Málaga
- Celta 1–3 Real Madrid Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Real Madrid
- Granada 1–1 Betis Oct 24, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Barcelona 3–1 Eibar Oct 25, 2015 · replay 70% for Barcelona
- Levante 0–4 Real Sociedad Oct 25, 2015 · replay 95% for Real Sociedad
- Las Palmas 0–0 Villarreal Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 56% draws
- Athletic 3–0 Sporting Oct 26, 2015 · replay 97% for Athletic