Matchday 9 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 25, 2015
Barcelona 3–1 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Eibar 3–1, and the replays lean Barcelona’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Eibar, 2 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 3 | 1.71 |
 Eibar | 1 | 0.78 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Barcelona lucky · −30 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 6, 2 end level, Eibar win 2.
- 1 BAR 2 EIB 1
- 2 BAR 1 EIB 0
- 3 BAR 2 EIB 0
- 4 BAR 2 EIB 0
- 5 BAR 3 EIB 0
- 6 BAR 3 EIB 0
- 7 BAR 1 EIB 1
- 8 BAR 1 EIB 1
- 9 BAR 0 EIB 2
- 10 BAR 1 EIB 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 58%, 24% end level, Eibar win 18%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 15.4% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 18.0% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 24.4% |
| Draw | 23.9% |
| Eibar by 1 | 12.4% |
| Eibar by 2 | 4.6% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 14 | 3 | 1.71 | +1.29 |
 Eibar | 7 | 1 | 0.78 | +0.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 20' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.58 |
| 47' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 84' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Sergio Gontán Gallardo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% BAR |
| 2 | 9' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +22% EIB |
| 3 | 20' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +12% BAR |
| 4 | 34' | Sandro Ramírez Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +6% EIB |
| 5 | 39' | Sergio Gontán Gallardo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +8% BAR |
| 6 | 47' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% BAR |
| 7 | 47' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +21% BAR |
| 8 | 84' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 83% · draw 11% · Eibar 5%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 58% · draw 24% · Eibar 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 9 matches, 2015-16 · Barcelona · Eibar
More from matchday 9, 2015-16
- Rayo 3–0 Espanyol Oct 23, 2015 · replay 80% for Rayo
- Sevilla 5–0 Getafe Oct 24, 2015 · replay 99% for Sevilla
- Málaga 2–0 Deportivo Oct 24, 2015 · replay 50% for Málaga
- Celta 1–3 Real Madrid Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Real Madrid
- Granada 1–1 Betis Oct 24, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Atlético 2–1 Valencia Oct 25, 2015 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Levante 0–4 Real Sociedad Oct 25, 2015 · replay 95% for Real Sociedad
- Las Palmas 0–0 Villarreal Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 56% draws
- Athletic 3–0 Sporting Oct 26, 2015 · replay 97% for Athletic