Matchday 9 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 24, 2015
Granada 1–1 Betis: who deserved to win?
Granada and Betis drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Granada win 5 of 10, Betis 2, and 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.1).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 1 | 1.38 |
 Real Betis | 1 | 1.15 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −12 Granada about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 5, 3 end level, Betis win 2.
- 1 GRA 1 BET 0
- 2 GRA 2 BET 1
- 3 GRA 3 BET 2
- 4 GRA 3 BET 1
- 5 GRA 3 BET 0
- 6 GRA 1 BET 1
- 7 GRA 0 BET 0
- 8 GRA 2 BET 2
- 9 GRA 1 BET 3
- 10 GRA 0 BET 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 49%, 26% end level, Betis win 25%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 10.6% |
| Granada by 2 | 14.5% |
| Granada by 1 | 23.8% |
| Draw | 25.7% |
| Betis by 1 | 15.8% |
| Betis by 2 | 6.8% |
| Betis by 3+ | 2.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 17 | 1 | 1.38 | −0.38 |
 Betis | 8 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.15 | −0.15 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Dimitri Foulquier scored from a shot | 0.69 |
| 39' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Dimitri Foulquier scored from a shotFinishing · 69% chance | +7% GRA |
| 2 | 39' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% BET |
| 3 | 52' | Isaac Ajayi Success didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BET |
| 4 | 52' | Diego Mainz García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% BET |
| 5 | 55' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% GRA |
| 6 | 55' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% GRA |
| 7 | 71' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% GRA |
| 8 | 73' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 40% · draw 34% · Betis 26%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Granada by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 49% · draw 26% · Betis 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 9 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Betis
More from matchday 9, 2015-16
- Rayo 3–0 Espanyol Oct 23, 2015 · replay 80% for Rayo
- Sevilla 5–0 Getafe Oct 24, 2015 · replay 99% for Sevilla
- Málaga 2–0 Deportivo Oct 24, 2015 · replay 50% for Málaga
- Celta 1–3 Real Madrid Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Real Madrid
- Atlético 2–1 Valencia Oct 25, 2015 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Barcelona 3–1 Eibar Oct 25, 2015 · replay 70% for Barcelona
- Levante 0–4 Real Sociedad Oct 25, 2015 · replay 95% for Real Sociedad
- Las Palmas 0–0 Villarreal Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 56% draws
- Athletic 3–0 Sporting Oct 26, 2015 · replay 97% for Athletic