Matchday 9 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 24, 2015
Málaga 2–0 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Málaga beat Deportivo 2–0, but the replays call it even: Málaga win 3 of 10, Deportivo 3, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.5 expected goals to 0.7).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 2 | 0.52 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 0 | 0.65 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +50 Málaga lucky · −50 Deportivo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 3, 4 end level, Deportivo win 3.
- 1 MAL 1 DEP 0
- 2 MAL 1 DEP 0
- 3 MAL 2 DEP 0
- 4 MAL 0 DEP 0
- 5 MAL 0 DEP 0
- 6 MAL 0 DEP 0
- 7 MAL 0 DEP 0
- 8 MAL 0 DEP 2
- 9 MAL 0 DEP 1
- 10 MAL 0 DEP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 29%, 42% end level, Deportivo win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Málaga by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 1.3% |
| Málaga by 2 | 6.3% |
| Málaga by 1 | 21.3% |
| Draw | 41.9% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 21.9% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 6.0% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 9 | 2 | 0.52 | +1.48 |
 Deportivo | 10 | 0 | 0.65 | −0.65 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 61' | Adnane Tighadouini scored from a free kick | 0.01 |
| 84' | Juan Carlos Pérez López scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Adnane Tighadouini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% DEP |
| 2 | 14' | Adnane Tighadouini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% DEP |
| 3 | 28' | Oriol Riera Magem didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% MAL |
| 4 | 51' | Adnane Tighadouini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% DEP |
| 5 | 61' | Adnane Tighadouini scored from a free kickFinishing · 1% chance | +34% MAL |
| 6 | 70' | Alejandro Arribas Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% MAL |
| 7 | 76' | Celso Borges Mora didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +6% MAL |
| 8 | 84' | Juan Carlos Pérez López scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 64% · draw 25% · Deportivo 11%
- Final margin
- Málaga by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 29% · draw 42% · Deportivo 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Málaga win 50% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 9, 2015-16
- Rayo 3–0 Espanyol Oct 23, 2015 · replay 80% for Rayo
- Sevilla 5–0 Getafe Oct 24, 2015 · replay 99% for Sevilla
- Celta 1–3 Real Madrid Oct 24, 2015 · replay 78% for Real Madrid
- Granada 1–1 Betis Oct 24, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Atlético 2–1 Valencia Oct 25, 2015 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Barcelona 3–1 Eibar Oct 25, 2015 · replay 70% for Barcelona
- Levante 0–4 Real Sociedad Oct 25, 2015 · replay 95% for Real Sociedad
- Las Palmas 0–0 Villarreal Oct 25, 2015 · drawn; replay 56% draws
- Athletic 3–0 Sporting Oct 26, 2015 · replay 97% for Athletic