Matchday 20 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 16, 2016
Villarreal 0–0 Betis: who deserved to win?
Villarreal and Betis drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Villarreal win 4 of 10, Betis 2, and 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 0.6).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 0 | 0.79 |
 Real Betis | 0 | 0.56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −7 Villarreal about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 4, 4 end level, Betis win 2.
- 1 VIL 1 BET 0
- 2 VIL 1 BET 0
- 3 VIL 1 BET 0
- 4 VIL 2 BET 0
- 5 VIL 1 BET 1
- 6 VIL 1 BET 1
- 7 VIL 0 BET 0
- 8 VIL 0 BET 0
- 9 VIL 0 BET 1
- 10 VIL 0 BET 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 39%, 37% end level, Betis win 24%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 3.6% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 9.7% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 25.4% |
| Draw | 37.2% |
| Betis by 1 | 17.9% |
| Betis by 2 | 5.3% |
| Betis by 3+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 9 | 0 | 0.79 | −0.79 |
 Betis | 15 | 0 | 0.56 | −0.56 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +7% BET |
| 2 | 22' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% BET |
| 3 | 53' | Bruno González Cabrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% VIL |
| 4 | 53' | Alfred John Momar N''Diaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% VIL |
| 5 | 57' | Jonathan dos Santos Ramírez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% BET |
| 6 | 66' | Alfred John Momar N''Diaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% VIL |
| 7 | 70' | Foued Kadir didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% VIL |
| 8 | 73' | Bruno Soriano Llido didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +2% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 40% · draw 36% · Betis 24%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 39% · draw 37% · Betis 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Deportivo Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Sevilla 2–1 Málaga Jan 16, 2016 · replay 59% for Sevilla
- Celta 4–3 Levante Jan 16, 2016 · replay 82% for Celta
- Real Madrid 5–1 Sporting Jan 17, 2016 · replay 92% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 2–2 Rayo Jan 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Las Palmas 0–3 Atlético Jan 17, 2016 · replay 90% for Atlético
- Getafe 3–1 Espanyol Jan 17, 2016 · replay 66% for Getafe
- Barcelona 6–0 Athletic Jan 17, 2016 · replay 91% for Barcelona
- Eibar 5–1 Granada Jan 18, 2016 · replay 83% for Eibar