Matchday 20 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 17, 2016
Valencia 2–2 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Valencia and Rayo drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Valencia win 2 of 10, Rayo 6, and 2 end level. Rayo made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 2 | 0.97 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 1.69 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Valencia about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 2, 2 end level, Rayo win 6.
- 1 VAL 1 RAY 0
- 2 VAL 3 RAY 1
- 3 VAL 1 RAY 1
- 4 VAL 1 RAY 1
- 5 VAL 0 RAY 4
- 6 VAL 1 RAY 4
- 7 VAL 0 RAY 2
- 8 VAL 1 RAY 3
- 9 VAL 0 RAY 1
- 10 VAL 0 RAY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 17%, 21% end level, Rayo win 62%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 1.3% |
| Valencia by 2 | 4.2% |
| Valencia by 1 | 11.3% |
| Draw | 21.0% |
| Rayo by 1 | 23.8% |
| Rayo by 2 | 18.8% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 19.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 13 | 2 | 0.97 | +1.03 |
 Rayo | 18 | 2 | 1.69 | +0.31 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 51' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 54' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 54' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 68' | Diego Javier Llorente Ríos scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 87' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shot | 0.48 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 2% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% VAL |
| 2 | 14' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +23% RAY |
| 3 | 51' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +5% VAL |
| 4 | 54' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +5% VAL |
| 5 | 54' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +34% VAL |
| 6 | 68' | Diego Javier Llorente Ríos scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +36% RAY |
| 7 | 87' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +25% VAL |
| 8 | 90' | André Filipe Tavares Gomes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 20% · draw 24% · Rayo 56%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 17% · draw 21% · Rayo 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Deportivo Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Sevilla 2–1 Málaga Jan 16, 2016 · replay 59% for Sevilla
- Celta 4–3 Levante Jan 16, 2016 · replay 82% for Celta
- Villarreal 0–0 Betis Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Real Madrid 5–1 Sporting Jan 17, 2016 · replay 92% for Real Madrid
- Las Palmas 0–3 Atlético Jan 17, 2016 · replay 90% for Atlético
- Getafe 3–1 Espanyol Jan 17, 2016 · replay 66% for Getafe
- Barcelona 6–0 Athletic Jan 17, 2016 · replay 91% for Barcelona
- Eibar 5–1 Granada Jan 18, 2016 · replay 83% for Eibar