Matchday 20 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 17, 2016
Getafe 3–1 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Getafe beat Espanyol 3–1, and the replays lean Getafe’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Espanyol, 2 end level. Getafe made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Getafe lucky · −34 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 5, 2 end level, Espanyol win 3.
- 1 GET 1 ESP 0
- 2 GET 2 ESP 1
- 3 GET 2 ESP 0
- 4 GET 3 ESP 1
- 5 GET 5 ESP 1
- 6 GET 1 ESP 1
- 7 GET 1 ESP 1
- 8 GET 1 ESP 4
- 9 GET 1 ESP 2
- 10 GET 1 ESP 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 55%, 22% end level, Espanyol win 23%. The line is what actually happened: Getafe by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 15.7% |
| Getafe by 2 | 17.0% |
| Getafe by 1 | 21.9% |
| Draw | 22.0% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 13.9% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 6.5% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 3.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 19 | 3 | 1.87 | +1.13 |
 Espanyol | 13 | 1 | 1.34 | −0.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 28' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 36' | Pablo Sarabia García scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 93' | Moisés Gómez Bordonado scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +6% ESP |
| 2 | 19' | Juan Antonio Rodríguez Villamuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% ESP |
| 3 | 25' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +24% ESP |
| 4 | 28' | The game turned herePedro León Sánchez Gil scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +23% GET |
| 5 | 36' | Pablo Sarabia García scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +24% GET |
| 6 | 79' | Francisco Montañés Claverías didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% GET |
| 7 | 83' | Enzo Pablo Roco Roco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +10% GET |
| 8 | 84' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +7% GET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 72% · draw 17% · Espanyol 12%
- Final margin
- Getafe by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Getafe
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Getafe by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 55% · draw 22% · Espanyol 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Getafe win 66% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Deportivo Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Sevilla 2–1 Málaga Jan 16, 2016 · replay 59% for Sevilla
- Celta 4–3 Levante Jan 16, 2016 · replay 82% for Celta
- Villarreal 0–0 Betis Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Real Madrid 5–1 Sporting Jan 17, 2016 · replay 92% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 2–2 Rayo Jan 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Las Palmas 0–3 Atlético Jan 17, 2016 · replay 90% for Atlético
- Barcelona 6–0 Athletic Jan 17, 2016 · replay 91% for Barcelona
- Eibar 5–1 Granada Jan 18, 2016 · replay 83% for Eibar