Matchday 20 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 16, 2016
Celta 4–3 Levante: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Levante 4–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Celta win 7 of 10, 1 end level. Celta made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 4 | 2.09 |
 Levante | 3 | 1.14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Celta about even · −18 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 7, 1 ends level, Levante win 2.
- 1 CEL 1 LEV 0
- 2 CEL 2 LEV 1
- 3 CEL 2 LEV 0
- 4 CEL 2 LEV 0
- 5 CEL 3 LEV 0
- 6 CEL 4 LEV 0
- 7 CEL 6 LEV 1
- 8 CEL 1 LEV 1
- 9 CEL 0 LEV 2
- 10 CEL 0 LEV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 75%, 15% end level, Levante win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 33.6% |
| Celta by 2 | 20.8% |
| Celta by 1 | 20.4% |
| Draw | 14.8% |
| Levante by 1 | 7.1% |
| Levante by 2 | 2.5% |
| Levante by 3+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 13 | 4 | 2.09 | +1.91 |
 Levante | 16 | 3 | 1.14 | +1.86 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 34' | John Guidetti scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 39' | John Guidetti scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 56' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shot | 0.53 |
| 62' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 64' | Pedro López Muñoz scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 83' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 88' | José Luis Morales Nogales scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% CEL |
| 2 | 28' | Víctor Camarasa Ferrando didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% CEL |
| 3 | 34' | John Guidetti scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +18% CEL |
| 4 | 39' | John Guidetti scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +9% CEL |
| 5 | 64' | Pedro López Muñoz scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% LEV |
| 6 | 80' | Rubén García Santos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% CEL |
| 7 | 80' | Víctor Camarasa Ferrando didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% CEL |
| 8 | 83' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +2% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 61% · draw 21% · Levante 18%
- Final margin
- Celta by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 75% · draw 15% · Levante 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Deportivo Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Sevilla 2–1 Málaga Jan 16, 2016 · replay 59% for Sevilla
- Villarreal 0–0 Betis Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Real Madrid 5–1 Sporting Jan 17, 2016 · replay 92% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 2–2 Rayo Jan 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Las Palmas 0–3 Atlético Jan 17, 2016 · replay 90% for Atlético
- Getafe 3–1 Espanyol Jan 17, 2016 · replay 66% for Getafe
- Barcelona 6–0 Athletic Jan 17, 2016 · replay 91% for Barcelona
- Eibar 5–1 Granada Jan 18, 2016 · replay 83% for Eibar